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Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes

Listed author(s):
  • Bao, Te
  • Hommes, Cars
  • Sonnemans, Joep
  • Tuinstra, Jan

Recent studies suggest that the type of strategic environment or expectation feedback can have a large impact on whether the market can learn the rational fundamental price. We present an experiment where the fundamental price experiences large unexpected shocks. Markets with negative expectation feedback (strategic substitutes) quickly converge to the new fundamental, while markets with positive expectation feedback (strategic complements) do not converge, but show underreaction in the short run and overreaction in the long run. A simple evolutionary selection model of individual learning explains these differences in aggregate outcomes.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188912000772
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1101-1120

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1101-1120
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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