Expectationally-driven market volatility: An experimental study
We study the existence and robustness of expectationally-driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies. In the theoretical model under study there exist “pure sunspot” equilibria which can be “learned” if agents use some adaptive learning rules. Our data show the existence of expectationally-driven cycles, but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and “learned” a real cycle. In this sense, we show evidence of path-dependent price volatility.
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- Spear, Stephen E., 1984. "Sufficient conditions for the existence of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 360-370, December.
- Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-284, April.
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- Lim, Suk S & Prescott, Edward C & Sunder, Shyam, 1994. "Stationary Solution to the Overlapping Generations Model of Fiat Money: Experimental Evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 255-77.
- Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993.
"Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September.
- Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world: Experimental evidence," Economics Working Papers 25, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "On the preservation of deterministic cycles when some agents perceive them to be random fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 705-721.
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