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Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model

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  • Arifovic, Jasmina
  • Evans, George W.
  • Kostyshyna, Olena

Abstract

We conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a nondecreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms. The model has three steady states and a sunspot equilibrium that fluctuates between the high and low steady states. Steady states are payoff ranked: low values give lower profits than higher values. We investigate whether subjects can learn a sunspot equilibrium. We observe coordination on the extrinsic announcements in our experimental economies. Cases of apparent convergence to the low and high steady states are also observed.

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  • Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:110:y:2020:i:c:s0165188919301721
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103775
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    Cited by:

    1. Jasmina Arifovic & Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "Ten Isn't Large! Group Size and Coordination in a Large-Scale Experiment," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 580-617, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sunspots; Learning; Experiments with human subjects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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