We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule
|Date of creation:||Jul 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as American Economic Review, Vol. 88, no. 3 (June 1998): 495-515.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gali Jordi, 1994.
"Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
- Jordi Galí, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, business cycles and the composition of aggregate demand," Economics Working Papers 45, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Gali, J., 1991. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Papers 92-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1992.
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 493-507, June.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, .
"Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1997
51, Society for Computational Economics.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44, January.
- Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 1992.
"Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
646, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994.
"A sticky-price manifesto,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 127-151, December.
- Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April.
- Bryant, John, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-Type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-28, August.
- Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
- Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper, 2014.
"Entry And Exit, Product Variety, And The Business Cycle,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1466-1484, October.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper, 1993. "Entry and exit, product variety and the business cycle," Working Papers 93-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper, 1993. "Entry and Exit, Product Variety and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 4562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
- Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell & Ravikumar, B, 1993.
"Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 795-811, October.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper & B. Ravikumar, 1993. "Strategic complementarity in business formation: aggregate fluctuations and sunspot equilibria," Working Papers 93-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
- Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995.
"On Growth and Indeterminacy: Some Theory and Evidence,"
95-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On growth and indeterminacy: some theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 163-211, December.
- Chamley, Christophe, 1993.
"Externalities and Dynamics in Models of "Learning or Doing.","
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 583-609, August.
- Christophe Chamley, 1991. "Externalities and Dynamics in Models of "Learning or Doing"," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 17, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.