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Growth Cycles

We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5659.

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Date of creation: Jul 1996
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Publication status: published as American Economic Review, Vol. 88, no. 3 (June 1998): 495-515.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5659
Note: EFG
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  1. Gali Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
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  10. Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper, 2014. "Entry And Exit, Product Variety, And The Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1466-1484, October.
  11. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
  12. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell & Ravikumar, B, 1993. "Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 795-811, October.
  13. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  14. Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On Growth and Indeterminacy: Some Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 95-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  15. Chamley, Christophe, 1993. "Externalities and Dynamics in Models of "Learning or Doing."," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 583-609, August.
  16. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  17. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  18. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
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