We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule
|Date of creation:||Jul 1996|
|Publication status:||published as American Economic Review, Vol. 88, no. 3 (June 1998): 495-515.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gali Jordi, 1994.
"Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
- Gali, J., 1991. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Papers 92-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Jordi Galí, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, business cycles and the composition of aggregate demand," Economics Working Papers 45, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
- Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 1992. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 646, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Chamley, Christophe, 1993. "Externalities and Dynamics in Models of "Learning or Doing."," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 583-609, August.
- Christophe Chamley, 1991. "Externalities and Dynamics in Models of "Learning or Doing"," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 17, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, "undated". "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper, 2014. "Entry And Exit, Product Variety, And The Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1466-1484, October.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper, 1993. "Entry and Exit, Product Variety and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 4562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper, 1993. "Entry and exit, product variety and the business cycle," Working Papers 93-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper & B. Ravikumar, 1993. "Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 795-811.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper & B. Ravikumar, 1993. "Strategic complementarity in business formation: aggregate fluctuations and sunspot equilibria," Working Papers 93-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April.
- Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
- Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1992. "Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 493-507, June.
- Howitt, P. & Mcfee, R.P., 1990. "Animal Spirits," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9005, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 127-151, December.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "A Sticky-Price Manifesto," NBER Working Papers 4677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On growth and indeterminacy: some theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 163-211, December.
- Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On Growth and Indeterminacy: Some Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 95-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- John Bryant, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-528.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
- Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
- Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.