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It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market

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  • Eizo Akiyama
  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
  • Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Abstract

To what extent is the observed mispricing in experimental asset markets caused by strategic uncertainty and by confusion? We address this question by comparing subjects’ initial price forecasts in two market environments: one with six human traders and the other with one human and five computer traders. We find that both strategic uncertainty and confusion contribute equally to the median initial forecast deviation from the fundamental value. The effect of strategic uncertainty is greater for subjects with a perfect score in the cognitive reflection test, and it is not significant for those with low scores.

Suggested Citation

  • Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 563-580, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:127:y:2017:i:605:p:f563-f580
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12338
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    Cited by:

    1. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Akiyama, Eizo & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2014. "How do experienced traders respond to inflows of inexperienced traders? An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders’ confidence in their price forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 121-136.
    4. repec:eee:dyncon:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:51-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Nicolas Jacquemet & Stéphane Luchini & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2016. "Cognitive ability and the effect of strategic uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(1), pages 101-121, June.
    6. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Nicolas Jacquemet & Stéphane Luchini & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2016. "Cognitive ability and the effect of strategic uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(1), pages 101-121, June.
    7. Farjam, Mike & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2018. "Bubbles in hybrid markets: How expectations about algorithmic trading affect human trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 248-269.
    8. Butler, David & Cheung, Stephen L., 2018. "Mind, Body, Bubble! Psychological and Biophysical Dimensions of Behavior in Experimental Asset Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 11563, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Yukihiko Funaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2015. "Diversity in Cognitive Ability Enlarges Mispricing," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-29, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    10. Suren Vardanyan, 2016. "Contagion in Experimental Financial Markets," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp580, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Cheung, Stephen L. & Hedegaard, Morten & Palan, Stefan, 2014. "To see is to believe: Common expectations in experimental asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 84-96.
    12. Bao, T. & Duffy, J., 2014. "Adaptive vs. eductive learning," Research Report 14002-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    13. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Yukihiko Funaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Diversity in Cognitive Ability Enlarges Mispricing in Experimental Asset Markets," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-08, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    14. Sébastien Duchêne & Eric Guerci & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Charles N. Noussair, 2018. "The effect of short selling and borrowing on market prices and traders’ behavior," Working Papers hal-01954924, HAL.
    15. repec:pit:wpaper:518 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Baghestanian, S. & Lugovskyy, V. & Puzzello, D., 2015. "Traders’ heterogeneity and bubble-crash patterns in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 82-101.
    17. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Nicolas Jacquemet & Stéphane Luchini & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2016. "Cognitive ability and the effect of strategic uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(1), pages 101-121, June.
    18. Breaban, A.G., 2014. "Behavior and asset markets : Individual decisions, emotions and fundamental value trajectories," Other publications TiSEM a20e6a40-f15e-4331-83cb-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 51-69.
    20. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "Revisiting Information Aggregation in Asset Markets: Reflective Learning & Market Efficiency," Working Papers 15-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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