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Fundamental value trajectories and trader characteristics in an asset market experiment

Author

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  • Adriana Breaban

    (Department of Economics and LEE, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Charles N. Noussair

    (Department of Economics, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands)

Abstract

We report results from an asset market experiment, in which we investigate how the time path of the fundamental value trajectory affects the level of adherence to fundamentals. In contrast to previous experiments with long-lived assets, there is a phase in which fundamental values are constant before the onset of a trend. The trend is either increasing or decreasing, depending on the treatment. We compare the level of mispricing between the decreasing and increasing fundamental value trajectories. Before the market begins, risk aversion, loss aversion, and cognitive reflection protocols are administered to traders. We find evidence for closer adherence to fundamental values when the trajectory follows a decreasing, than when it has an increasing, trend. Greater average risk aversion on the part of traders in the market predicts lower market prices. The greater the level of loss aversion of the trader cohort, the lower the quantity traded. The greater the average cognitive reflection test score, the smaller the differences between market prices and fundamental values. The variation between groups in risk aversion, loss aversion, and CRT score, explains 45% and 18% of the cohort-level variation in price level and mispricing, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Adriana Breaban & Charles N. Noussair, 2014. "Fundamental value trajectories and trader characteristics in an asset market experiment," Working Papers 2014/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2016. "Taxing financial transactions in fundamentally heterogeneous markets," DEM Working Papers 2016/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2020.
    3. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Yukihiko Funaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Diversity in Cognitive Ability Enlarges Mispricing in Experimental Asset Markets," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-08, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    4. Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone, 2015. "Market Efficiency, Trading Institutions and Information Mirages: evidence from an experimental asset market," MPRA Paper 67448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 563-580, October.
    6. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    7. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Molinari, Massimo, 2017. "Taxing financial transactions in fundamentally heterogeneous markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 322-333.
    8. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2015. "Investment Horizons and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. da Gama Batista, João & Massaro, Domenico & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Challet, Damien & Hommes, Cars, 2017. "Do investors trade too much? A laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 18-34.
    10. Praveen Kujal & Owen Powell, 2017. "Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 17-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    11. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    12. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01er:dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    13. Giovanni Giusti & Janet Hua Jiang & Yiping Xu, 2014. "Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets," Staff Working Papers 14-18, Bank of Canada.
    14. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2016. "Cash Inflows And Bubbles In Asset Markets With Constant Fundamental Values," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1596-1606, July.
    15. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2015. "Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 314-334, June.
    16. Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2018. "An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1857-1892, August.
    17. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Yukihiko Funaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2015. "Diversity in Cognitive Ability Enlarges Mispricing," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-29, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    18. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Angela Sutan & Marc Willinger, 2016. "The Strategic Environment Effect in Beauty Contest Games," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-05, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    19. Stefan Palan, 2014. "A Software for Asset Market Experiments," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2014-01, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Fundamental Value; CRT; Crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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