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An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing

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  • MATTHIAS WEBER
  • JOHN DUFFY
  • ARTHUR SCHRAM

Abstract

An important feature of bond markets is the relationship between the initial public offering (IPO) price and the probability that the issuer defaults. On the one hand, the default probability affects the IPO price; on the other hand, the IPO price affects the default probability. It is a priori unclear whether agents can competitively price such assets. Our paper is the first to explore this question. To do so, we use laboratory experiments. We develop two flexible bond market models that are easily implemented in the laboratory. We find that subjects learn to price the bonds well after only a few repetitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2018. "An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1857-1892, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:73:y:2018:i:4:p:1857-1892
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12695
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    Cited by:

    1. Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Matthias Weber & Lauren Cohen, 2021. "Experience Does Not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4450-4485.
    2. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2019. "Experimental Asset Markets with an Indefinite Horizon," Cahiers de recherche 08-2019, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    3. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril, 2022. "Motivated beliefs, social preferences, and limited liability in financial decision-making," Discussion Papers 2022/8, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
    5. Sascha Füllbrunn & Tibor Neugebauer & Andreas Nicklisch, 2020. "Underpricing of initial public offerings in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1002-1029, December.
    6. Te Bao & Edward Halim & Charles N. Noussair & Yohanes E. Riyanto, 2021. "Managerial incentives and stock price dynamics: an experimental approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 617-648, June.
    7. Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2019. "Credit Default Swap Regulation in Experimental Bond Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1905, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Weber, Matthias & Duffy, John & Schram, Arthur, 2024. "Regulation and the demand for credit default swaps in experimental bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    10. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Caselli, Stefano & Cillo, Alessandra & Masciandaro, Donato & Rabitti, Giovanni, 2021. "Money, privacy, anonymity: What do experiments tell us?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Lehmann, Timo & Weber, Matthias, 2021. "IPO Underpricing and Aftermarket Price Accuracy: Auctions vs. Bookbuilding in Japan," SocArXiv sa385, Center for Open Science.
    12. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    13. Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Behavioral Optimal Taxation: The Case of Aspirations," SocArXiv fpnw6, Center for Open Science.
    14. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril, 2023. "Motivated beliefs, social preferences, and limited liability in financial decision-Making," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2021. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-32, CIRANO.
    16. Matthias Weber, 2021. "Behavioral optimal taxation: Aspirations," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 5(1), pages 19-26, Septembre.
    17. Salvi, Antonio & Giakoumelou, Anastasia & Bertinetti, Giorgio Stefano, 2021. "CSR in the bond market: Pricing stakeholders and the moderating role of the institutional context," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. Noussair, Charles N. & Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2021. "Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 671-687.
    19. Weber, Matthias, 2022. "From Individual Human Decisions to Economic and Financial Policies," SocArXiv 5ju7z, Center for Open Science.
    20. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2021. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," ISER Discussion Paper 1119, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    21. Anna Bayona & Oana Peia & Razvan Vlahu, 2023. "Credit Ratings and Investments," Working Papers 776, DNB.
    22. Timo Lehmann & Matthias Weber, 2023. "Auctions versus bookbuilding: The effects of IPO regulation in Japan," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 117-141, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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