IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/651.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Quantitative Easing Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • A. Penalver
  • N. Hanaki
  • E. Akiyama
  • Y. Funaki
  • R. Ishikawa

Abstract

This paper presents experimental evidence that quantitative easing can be effective in raising bond prices even if bonds and cash are perfect substitutes and the path of interest rates is fixed. Despite knowing the fundamental value of bonds, participants in the experiment believed that bond prices would exceed this value when they knew that a central bank would buy a large fraction of the market in a quantitative easing operation. By contrast, there was no average deviation of prices from fundamentals when trading only occurred between participants themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Penalver & N. Hanaki & E. Akiyama & Y. Funaki & R. Ishikawa, 2017. "A Quantitative Easing Experiment," Working papers 651, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:651
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/document-de-travail-651_2017-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vincent P. Crawford & Nagore Iriberri, 2007. "Level-k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private-Value Auctions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1721-1770, November.
    2. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 563-580, October.
    3. Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2018. "Cognitive bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 132-153, March.
    4. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 563-580, October.
    5. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    6. DavidJ. Cooper & Hanming Fang, 2008. "Understanding Overbidding In Second Price Auctions: An Experimental Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1572-1595, October.
    7. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    8. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    9. Dirk-Jan Janssen & Sascha Füllbrunn & Utz Weitzel, 2019. "Individual speculative behavior and overpricing in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 653-675, September.
    10. Dufwenberg, Martin & Gneezy, Uri, 2000. "Price competition and market concentration: an experimental study," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-22, January.
    11. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders’ confidence in their price forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 121-136.
    12. Iovino, Luigi & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    14. Christoph Bühren & Björn Frank & Rosemarie Nagel, 2012. "A Historical Note on the Beauty Contest," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201211, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    16. Abbink, Klaus & Brandts, Jordi & Pezanis-Christou, Paul, 2006. "Auctions for government securities: A laboratory comparison of uniform, discriminatory and Spanish designs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 284-303, October.
    17. Akiyama, Eizo & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2014. "How do experienced traders respond to inflows of inexperienced traders? An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-18.
    18. Carlé, Tim A. & Lahav, Yaron & Neugebauer, Tibor & Noussair, Charles N., 2019. "Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Trade in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 215-245, February.
    19. Penalver, Adrian & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2020. "A quantitative easing experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 51-69.
    21. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
    22. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals [Margin, short sell, and lotteries in experimental asset markets]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    23. Marszalec, Daniel, 2017. "The impact of auction choice on revenue in treasury bill auctions – An empirical evaluation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 215-239.
    24. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2015. "Erratum to: Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(4), pages 756-759, December.
    25. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    26. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
    27. Tomoe Hoshihata & Ryuichiro Ishikawa & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama, 2017. "Flat Bubbles in Long-Horizon Experiments: Results from two Market Conditions," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-32, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    28. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3887-3928, November.
    29. Cary Deck & David Porter & Vernon Smith, 2014. "Double Bubbles in Assets Markets With Multiple Generations," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 79-88, April.
    30. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin, 2005. "Cursed Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1623-1672, September.
    31. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2015. "Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 314-334, June.
    32. Sargent, Thomas J & Smith, Bruce D, 1987. "Irrelevance of Open Market Operations in Some Economies with Government Currency Being Dominated in Rate of Return," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 78-92, March.
    33. Breaban, Adriana & Noussair, Charles N., 2015. "Trader characteristics and fundamental value trajectories in an asset market experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 1-17.
    34. Oliver Kirchkamp & J. Philipp Reiß, 2011. "Out‐Of‐Equilibrium Bids in First‐Price Auctions: Wrong Expectations or Wrong Bids," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1361-1397, December.
    35. C. Monica Capra, 1999. "Anomalous Behavior in a Traveler's Dilemma?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 678-690, June.
    36. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    37. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    38. Michael R. Baye & John Morgan, 2004. "Price Dispersion in the Lab and on the Internet: Theory and Evidence," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(3), pages 448-466, Autumn.
    39. Powell, Owen & Shestakova, Natalia, 2016. "Experimental asset markets: A survey of recent developments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 14-22.
    40. Ernan Haruvy & Charles N. Noussair & Owen Powell, 2014. "The Impact of Asset Repurchases and Issues in an Experimental Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 681-713.
    41. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & Muriel Niederle, 2010. "Can Relaxation of Beliefs Rationalize the Winner's Curse?: An Experimental Study," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1435-1452, July.
    42. Colin F. Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho & Juin-Kuan Chong, 2004. "A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 861-898.
    43. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    44. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. AJ A. Bostian & Charles A. Holt, 2009. "Price Bubbles with Discounting: A Web-Based Classroom Experiment," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 27-37, January.
    46. Joyce, Michael & Tong, Matthew & Woods, Robert, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
    47. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    48. Powell, Owen, 2016. "Numeraire independence and the measurement of mispricing in experimental asset markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 56-62.
    49. Michael Kirchler & Jurgen Huber & Thomas Stockl, 2012. "Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 865-883, April.
    50. Van Boening, Mark V. & Williams, Arlington W. & LaMaster, Shawn, 1993. "Price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 179-185.
    51. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    52. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-1326, December.
    53. Anthony M. Kwasnica & Katerina Sherstyuk, 2013. "Multiunit Auctions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 461-490, July.
    54. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508211365 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Reshmaan N. Hussam & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 924-937, June.
    56. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Quant Skills, Behavioral Biases and Intuition on Trader Performance," Working Papers 15-17, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    57. Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
    58. Vincent P. Crawford & Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Nagore Iriberri, 2013. "Structural Models of Nonequilibrium Strategic Thinking: Theory, Evidence, and Applications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 5-62, March.
    59. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    60. Stefan Palan, 2013. "A Review Of Bubbles And Crashes In Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 570-588, July.
    61. Todd R. Kaplan & David Wettstein, 2000. "The possibility of mixed-strategy equilibria with constant-returns-to-scale technology under Bertrand competition," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 65-71.
    62. Sean Crockett & John Duffy & Yehuda Izhakian, 2019. "An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 627-667.
    63. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Penalver, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Eizo Akiyama, Yukihiko Funaki, Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "An Experimental Analysis Of The Effect Of Quantitative Easing," Working papers 684, Banque de France.
    2. Jieyi Duan & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2021. "The impact of asset purchases in an experimental market with consumption smoothing motives," ISER Discussion Paper 1147, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Duffy, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga, 2021. "Market Reactions to Stock Splits: Experimental Evidence," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021/1, University of Stavanger.
    4. Penalver, Adrian & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2020. "A quantitative easing experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Jieyi Duan & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2021. "The impact of asset purchases in an experimental market with consumption smoothing motives," ISER Discussion Paper 1147r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2022.
    6. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adrian Penalver, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Eizo Akiyama, Yukihiko Funaki, Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "An Experimental Analysis Of The Effect Of Quantitative Easing," Working papers 684, Banque de France.
    2. Kiss, Hubert J. & Kóczy, László Á. & Pintér, Ágnes & Sziklai, Balázs R., 2022. "Does risk sorting explain overpricing in experimental asset markets?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Bousselmi, Wael & Sentis, Patrick & Willinger, Marc, 2019. "How do markets react to (un)expected fundamental value shocks? An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 90-113.
    4. Shestakova, Natalia & Powell, Owen & Gladyrev, Dmitry, 2019. "Bubbles, experience and success," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 206-213.
    5. Corgnet, Brice & Hernán-González, Roberto & Kujal, Praveen, 2020. "On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Duchêne, Sébastien & Guerci, Eric & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Noussair, Charles N., 2019. "The effect of short selling and borrowing on market prices and traders’ behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Jieyi Duan & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2021. "The impact of asset purchases in an experimental market with consumption smoothing motives," ISER Discussion Paper 1147, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Hirota, Shinichi & Huber, Juergen & Stöckl, Thomas & Sunder, Shyam, 2022. "Speculation, money supply and price indeterminacy in financial markets: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1275-1296.
    9. Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Cognitive ability and observed behavior in laboratory experiments: implications for macroeconomic theory," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 355-378, July.
    10. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Marquardt, Philipp & Noussair, Charles N & Weber, Martin, 2019. "Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-140.
    12. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 563-580, October.
    13. Zhengyang Bao & Andreas Leibbrandt & ple391, 2019. "Thar she resurges: The case of assets that lack positive fundamental value," Monash Economics Working Papers 12-19, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Hubert J. Kiss & Laszlo A. Koczy & Agnes Pinter & Balazs R. Sziklai, 2019. "Does risk sorting explain bubbles?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1905, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    15. Jieyi Duan & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2021. "The impact of asset purchases in an experimental market with consumption smoothing motives," ISER Discussion Paper 1147r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2022.
    16. Dirk-Jan Janssen & Sascha Füllbrunn & Utz Weitzel, 2019. "Individual speculative behavior and overpricing in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 653-675, September.
    17. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Angela Sutan & Marc Willinger, 2016. "The Strategic Environment Effect in Beauty Contest Games," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-05, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    18. Bao, Zhengyang & Kalaycı, Kenan & Leibbrandt, Andreas & Oyarzun, Carlos, 2020. "Do regulations work? A comprehensive analysis of price limits and trading restrictions in experimental asset markets with deterministic and stochastic fundamental values," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 59-84.
    19. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals [Margin, short sell, and lotteries in experimental asset markets]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    20. Baghestanian, S. & Lugovskyy, V. & Puzzello, D., 2015. "Traders’ heterogeneity and bubble-crash patterns in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 82-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Easing; Experimental asset markets.;

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.