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Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Trade in Experimental Asset Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Carlé, Tim A.
  • Lahav, Yaron
  • Neugebauer, Tibor
  • Noussair, Charles N.

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between traders’ expectations and market outcomes with experimental asset market data. The data show that those who have high price expectations buy more frequently and submit higher bids, and those who hold low price expectations sell more frequently and submit lower bids. Traders who have more accurate expectations achieve greater earnings. Simulations using only belief data reproduce the pricing patterns observed in the market well, indicating that the heterogeneity of expectations is a key to explaining market activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlé, Tim A. & Lahav, Yaron & Neugebauer, Tibor & Noussair, Charles N., 2019. "Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Trade in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 215-245, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:54:y:2019:i:01:p:215-245_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 51-69.
    2. Bao, Te & Hennequin, Myrna & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2020. "Coordination on bubbles in large-group asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Duchêne, Sébastien & Guerci, Eric & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Noussair, Charles N., 2019. "The effect of short selling and borrowing on market prices and traders’ behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders’ confidence in their price forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 121-136.
    5. Adrian Penalver, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Eizo Akiyama, Yukihiko Funaki, Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "An Experimental Analysis Of The Effect Of Quantitative Easing," Working papers 684, Banque de France.
    6. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments," Working Papers halshs-01263661, HAL.
    7. Jordi Galí & Giovanni Giusti, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles: A Laboratory Experiment," Working Papers 1184, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    8. A. Penalver & N. Hanaki & E. Akiyama & Y. Funaki & R. Ishikawa, 2017. "A Quantitative Easing Experiment," Working papers 651, Banque de France.
    9. Jordi Galí & Giovanni Giusti & Charles N. Noussair, 2020. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: a laboratory experiment," Economics Working Papers 1726, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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