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Can Relaxation of Beliefs Rationalize the Winner's Curse?: An Experimental Study

Author Info

  • Asen Ivanov
  • Dan Levin
  • Muriel Niederle

Abstract

We use a second-price common-value auction, called the maximal game, to experimentally study whether the winner's curse (WC) can be explained by models which retain best-response behavior but allow for inconsistent beliefs. We compare behavior in a regular version of the maximal game, where the WC can be explained by inconsistent beliefs, to behavior in versions where such explanations are less plausible. We find little evidence of differences in behavior. Overall, our study casts a serious doubt on theories that posit the WC is driven by beliefs. Copyright 2010 The Econometric Society.

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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 78 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1435-1452

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:78:y:2010:i:4:p:1435-1452
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
  • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
  • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
  • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions

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  1. Vincent P. Crawford & Nagore Iriberri, 2007. "Level-k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private-Value Auctions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1721-1770, November.
  2. Dale O. Stahl & Paul W. Wilson, 2010. "On Players' Models of Other Players: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Levine's Working Paper Archive 542, David K. Levine.
  3. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2009. "Hindsight, Foresight, and Insight: An Experimental Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1484-1507, September.
  4. Dyer, Douglas & Kagel, John H & Levin, Dan, 1989. "A Comparison of Naive and Experienced Bidders in Common Value Offer Auctions: A Laboratory Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 108-15, March.
  5. Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1997. "The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1247-1282, November.
  6. McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 699-738, June.
  7. Boudreau, Bryan & Hendricks, Kenneth & Porter, Robert H., 1986. "Information, Returns, and Bidding Behavior in OCS Auctions: 1954-1969," Working Papers 86-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  8. Wilson, Robert, 1992. "Strategic analysis of auctions," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 227-279 Elsevier.
  9. Paul Milgrom & Robert J. Weber, 1981. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Discussion Papers 447R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. Lind, Barry & Plott, Charles R, 1991. "The Winner's Curse: Experiments with Buyers and with Sellers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 335-46, March.
  11. Erik Eyster & Matt Rabin, 2003. "Cursed Equilibrium," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0303002, EconWPA.
  12. Laffont, J.J., 1996. "Game Theory and Empirical Economics: The Case of Auction Data," Papers 95.394, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  13. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
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  16. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-26, December.
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Cited by:

  1. Alistair J. Wilson & Emanuel Vespa, 2012. "Communication With Multiple Senders and Multiple Dimensions: An Experiment," Working Papers 401, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  2. Brünner, Tobias & Becker, Alice, 2013. "Bidding in common value fair division games," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79810, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Nadine Chlaß, 2011. "On Individual Cursedness - How personality shapes individuals' sensitivity to incur a winner's curse -," Jena Economic Research Papers 2011-027, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  4. Ignacio Esponda Jr. & Emanuel Vespa Jr., 2014. "Hypothetical Thinking and Information Extraction in the Laboratory," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 180-202, November.
  5. Alistair J. Wilson & Emanuel Vespa, 2012. "Communication With Multiple Senders and Multiple Dimensions: An Experiment," Working Papers 384, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  6. Isabelle Brocas & Juan D. Carrillo & Manuel Castro, 2011. "The nature of information and its effect on bidding behavior: laboratory evidence in a common value auction," Working Paper 8510, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  7. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Nicolas Jacquemet & Stéphane Luchini & Adam Zylberstejn, 2014. "Cognitive Ability and the Effect of Strategic Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 1458, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  8. Vincent P. Crawford & Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Nagore Iriberri, 2010. "Strategic Thinking," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000001148, David K. Levine.
  9. Agranov, Marina & Potamites, Elizabeth & Schotter, Andrew & Tergiman, Chloe, 2012. "Beliefs and endogenous cognitive levels: An experimental study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 449-463.
  10. Qin, Xiangdong & Zhang, Fangzhou, 2013. "Using clock auctions to dissolve partnership: An experimental study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 55-59.
  11. Sanjit Dhami & Ali al-Nowaihi, 2013. "Evidential equilibria: Heuristics and biases in static games," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  12. Sotiris Georganas & Paul J. Healy & Roberto A. Weber, 2014. "On the Persistence of Strategic Sophistication," CESifo Working Paper Series 4653, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "An Equilibrium Framework for Players with Misspecified Models," Papers 1411.1152, arXiv.org.
  14. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Nicolas Jacquemet & Stéphane Luchini & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2013. "Bounded Rationality and Strategic Uncertainty in a Simple Dominance Solvable Game," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  15. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D & Castro, Manuel, 2010. "The nature of information and its effect on bidding behavior: laboratory evidence in a common value auction," CEPR Discussion Papers 7848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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