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Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Levin
  • James Peck
  • Asen Ivanov

Abstract

Through a series of decision tasks involving colored cards, we provide separate measures of Bayesian updating and non-probabilistic reasoning skills. We apply these measures to (and are the first to study) a common-value Dutch auction. This format is more salient than the strategically equivalent first-price auction and silent Dutch formats in hinting that one should condition one's estimate of the value on having the highest bid. Both Bayesian updating skills and non-probabilistic reasoning skills are shown to help subjects correct for the winner's curse, as does the saliency of the active-clock Dutch format. (JEL D12, D44, D83)

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Levin & James Peck & Asen Ivanov, 2016. "Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 39-60, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:39-60
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.20140008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Sven & Guth, Werner & Kaplan, Todd & Zultan, Roi, 2014. "Auctions and Leaks: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation," MPRA Paper 58940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alejandro Martínez-Marquina & Muriel Niederle & Emanuel Vespa, 2017. "Probabilistic States versus Multiple Certainties: The Obstacle of Uncertainty in Contingent Reasoning," NBER Working Papers 24030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa, 2024. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2806-2831.
    4. Koch, Christian & Penczynski, Stefan P., 2018. "The winner's curse: Conditional reasoning and belief formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 57-102.
    5. Moser, Johannes, 2017. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner's curse: An experimental investigation," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 36304, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Sven Fischer & Werner Güth & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro'i Zultan, 2021. "Auctions With Leaks About Early Bids: Analysis And Experimental Behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(2), pages 722-739, April.
    7. Fischer, Sven & Guth, Werner & Kaplan, Todd & Zultan, Roi, 2014. "Auctions and Leaks: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation," MPRA Paper 58940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shannon, Darren & Dowling, Michael & Zhaf, Marjan & Sheehan, Barry, 2024. "Dutch auction dynamics in non-fungible token (NFT) markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Moser, Johannes, 2018. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner's curse: An experimental investigation," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181506, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Pidduck, Robert J. & Townsend, David M. & Busenitz, Lowell W., 2024. "Non-probabilistic reasoning in navigating entrepreneurial uncertainty: A psychology of religious faith lens," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4).
    11. Ivanova-Stenzel, Radosveta & Seres, Gyula, 2021. "Are strategies anchored?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Evan M. Calford & Timothy N. Cason, 2024. "Contingent Reasoning and Dynamic Public Goods Provision," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 236-266, May.
    13. Johannes Moser, 2019. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner’s curse: an experimental investigation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 17-56, July.
    14. Onur Sapci, 2021. "The impact of environmental economics class on college students` future temperature expectations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1887-1897.
    15. Alex Rees-Jones & Ran Shorrer & Chloe Tergiman, 2024. "Correlation Neglect in Student-to-School Matching," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 1-42, August.
    16. Johannes Moser, 2017. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner's curse: An experimental investigation," Working Papers 176, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    17. Sotiris Georganas & Dan Levin & Peter McGee, 2017. "Optimistic irrationality and overbidding in private value auctions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(4), pages 772-792, December.
    18. Olivier Bochet & Jacopo Magnani, 2021. "Limited Strategic Thinking and the Cursed Match," Working Papers 20210071, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Sep 2021.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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