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Knowing me, imagining you: Projection and overbidding in auctions

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  • Breitmoser, Yves

Abstract

Overbidding in auctions has been attributed to e.g. risk aversion, loser regret, level-k, and cursedness, relying on varying identifying assumptions. I argue that “type projection” organizes these findings and largely captures observed behavior. Type projection formally models that people tend to believe others have object values similar to their own—a robust psychological phenomenon that naturally applies to auctions. First, I show that type projection generates the main behavioral phenomena observed in auctions, including increased sense of competition (“loser regret”) and broken Bayesian updating (“cursedness”). Second, re-analyzing data from seven experiments, I show that type projection explains the stylized facts of behavior across private and common value auctions. Third, in a structural analysis relaxing the identifying assumptions made in earlier studies, type projection consistently captures behavior best, in-sample and out-of-sample. The results reconcile bidding patterns across conditions and have implications for behavioral and empirical analyses as well as policy.

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  • Breitmoser, Yves, 2019. "Knowing me, imagining you: Projection and overbidding in auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 423-447.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:113:y:2019:i:c:p:423-447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2018.10.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Auctions; Overbidding; Projection; Risk aversion; Cursed equilibrium; Depth of reasoning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions

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