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Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations

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  • Iovino, Luigi
  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy

Abstract

We study the effects of central bank balance sheet policies-namely, quantitative easing and foreign exchange interventions-in a model where people form expectations through the level-k thinking process, which is consistent with experimental evidence on the behavior of people in strategic environments. We emphasize two main theoretical results. First, under a broad set of conditions, central bank interventions are effective under level-k thinking, while they are neutral in the rational expectations equilibrium. Second, forecast errors about future endogenous variables are predictable by balance sheet interventions. We confirm these predictions using data on mortgage purchases by US government sponsored enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Iovino, Luigi & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2019. "Managing Households' Expectations with Salient Economic Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7793, CESifo.
    3. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2020. "(Why) do central banks care about their profits?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 018, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    5. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy Lessons for Greece from the Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8188, CESifo.
    6. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "Human Frictions to the Transmission of Economic Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Mauersberger, Felix & Nagel, Rosemarie & Bühren, Christoph, 2020. "Bounded rationality in Keynesian beauty contests: A lesson for central bankers?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 14, pages 1-38.
    8. A. Penalver & N. Hanaki & E. Akiyama & Y. Funaki & R. Ishikawa, 2017. "A Quantitative Easing Experiment," Working papers 651, Banque de France.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2020. "Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?," NBER Working Papers 27384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Adrian Penalver & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Yukihiko Funaki, 2020. "A quantitative easing experiment," ISER Discussion Paper 1094, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2020. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Quantitative Easing Policies and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 14324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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