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Official FX interventions through derivatives

Author

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  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel
  • Andrade, Sandro C.

Abstract

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swap auctions carried out by the Brazilian Central Bank on the USDBRL exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the exchange rate in a significant way, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. We show that during our sample period auctions of contracts in which the Central Bank took a short position in USD had larger effects than those in which the Central Bank took a long position. The supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Andrade, Sandro C., 2014. "Official FX interventions through derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 202-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:202-216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.05.023
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    Cited by:

    1. Polo, Andrea & Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Khametshin, Dmitry & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit and Global Financial Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 12817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "FX intervention to stabilize or manipulate the exchange rate? Inference from profitability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Biswajit Banerjee & Juraj Zeman & Ľudovít Ódor & William O. Riiska, 2018. "On the Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: The Case of Slovakia, 1999–2007," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 442-474, September.
    5. Robert Neil McCauley & Chang Shu, 2016. "Non-deliverable forwards: impact of currency internationalisation and derivatives reform," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Chertman, Fernando & Hutchison, Michael & Zink, David, 2020. "Facing the Quadrilemma: Taylor rules, intervention policy and capital controls in large emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    9. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    10. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    11. Flavio Abanto Salcedo, 2024. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention through derivative instruments effective? An analysis of the Peruvian case," IHEID Working Papers 17-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Ferry Syarifuddin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences Of Foreign Exchange Futures," Working Papers WP/14/2020, Bank Indonesia.
    13. Yavuz Arslan & Carlos Cantú, 2019. "The size of foreign exchange reserves," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 1-23, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    15. Park, Ki Young & Kim, Soohyon, 2019. "Detecting currency manipulation: An application of a state-space model with Markov switching," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 50-60.
    16. Dietrich Domanski & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ramon Moreno, 2016. "Foreign exchange market intervention in EMEs: what has changed?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    17. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2019. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives‐Based Intervention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1455-1490, September.
    19. Syarifuddin, Ferry & Izzulhaq, Syahid, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Futures-based Foreign Exchange Intervention: Comparative Studies of Brazil and India," MPRA Paper 104709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Christian Upper & Marcos Valli, 2016. "Emerging derivatives markets?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    21. Martin Vesna, 2020. "Intervention Strategies in Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 381-399, September.
    22. Pontines, Victor & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Atarbaatar, Enkhjin & Munkhtsetseg, Ulziikhutag, 2021. "The effectiveness of currency intervention: Evidence from Mongolia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    23. Bank for International Settlements, 2017. "Foreign exchange liquidity in the Americas," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 90.
    24. Biswal, P.C. & Jain, Anshul, 2019. "Should central banks use the currency futures market to manage spot volatility? Evidence from India," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervention; Exchange rate; Derivatives; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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