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Systematic Managed Floating

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg. But most of the remainder in practice also don’t obey such well-defined intermediate exchange rate regimes as target zones. This paper proposes to define an intermediate regime, to be called “systematic managed floating,” as an arrangement where the central bank regularly responds to changes in total exchange market pressure by allowing some fraction to be reflected as a change in the exchange rate and the remaining fraction to be absorbed as a change in foreign exchange reserves. An operational criterion for judging systematic managed floaters is a high correlation between exchange rate changes and reserve changes. The paper rejects the view that exchange rate regimes make no difference. In regressions to test effects on real exchange rates, we find that positive external shocks tend to cause real appreciation for most systematic managed-floaters; more strongly so for pure floaters; and not at all for most firm peggers. Two measures of exogenous external shocks are used: (i) for commodity-exporters, a country-specific index of global prices of the export commodities and (ii) for other Asian emerging market economies, the VIX.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2017. "Systematic Managed Floating," NBER Working Papers 23663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23663
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Siklos, 2018. "Boom-and-Bust Cycles in Emerging Markets: How Important is the Exchange Rate?," LCERPA Working Papers 0108, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 30 Jan 2018.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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