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A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Qureshi, Mahvash S.

Abstract

This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about 40 emerging market countries over 1986-2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. Countries with fixed exchange rate regimes are more likely to experience financial vulnerabilities - faster domestic credit and house price growth, and increases in bank leverage - than those with relatively flexible regimes. The transmission of global financial shocks is likewise magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) regimes. We attribute this to both reduced monetary policy autonomy and a greater sensitivity of capital flows to changes in global conditions under fixed rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2017. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 12093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nakatani, Ryota, 2017. "Real and Financial Shocks, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Probability of a Currency Crisis," MPRA Paper 82186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andreas Steiner & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma," CESifo Working Paper Series 6753, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 17/193, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Carlos A. Vegh & Luis Morano & Diego Friedheim & Diego Rojas, "undated". "Between a Rock and a Hard Place," World Bank Other Operational Studies 28443, The World Bank.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 3-28, Summer.
    6. Edward Nelson, 2017. "The Continuing Validity of Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Floating Exchange Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-112, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Flows; emerging market economies; global financial cycle; trilemma;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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