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World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle

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  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia
  • Rey, Hélène

Abstract

We find that one global factor explains an important part of the variance of a large cross section of returns of risky assets around the world. Using a model with heterogeneous investors, we interpret the global factor as reflecting aggregate realised variance and the time-varying degree of market-wide risk aversion. A medium-scale Bayesian VAR allows us to analyse the workings of the "Global Financial Cycle", i.e. the interaction between US monetary policy, real activity and global financial variables such as credit spreads, cross-border credit flows, bank leverage and the global factor in asset prices. We find evidence of large monetary policy spillovers from the US to the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Rey, Hélène, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10936
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; dynamic factor model; international financial flows; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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