A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model
A model for U.S. macroeconomic time series that has been used for forecasting for several years is described in some detail. The model is a multivariate Bayesian autoregression, with allowance for conditional heteroskedasticity, stochastic time-variation in parameters, and non-normality of disturbances. It specifies the prior distribution in ways that improve on previous Bayesian vector autoregression specifications in realism and forecasting performance. The model's record of forecasting in recent years is displayed and discussed.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, NBER, 1993, pp. 179-214|
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|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
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in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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