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Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

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  • Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli
  • Mr. Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative priors. We then discuss extensions of the basic model and address issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction functions for four European central banks under the European Monetary System (EMS) illustrates how some of the results previously presented may be applied in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 2003/102, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/102
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    1. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    2. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani & Giorgio Vocalelli, 2023. "Global Money Supply and Energy and Non-Energy Commodity Prices: A MS-TV-VAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2023-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Volkan Hacioglu, 2015. "Bayesian Expectations and Strategic Complementarity: Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Post-Print hal-01404402, HAL.
    5. Gimet, Céline & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Reyes-Ortiz, Luis, 2019. "Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 89-110.
    6. Aleksandra Nocoń, 2020. "Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-14, November.
    7. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2018. "China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1140-1164.
    8. Andreas Bachmann & Stefan Leist, 2017. "Sudden stops and output: an empirical Markov switching analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 525-567, September.
    9. Paulo Chahuara, 2020. "Análisis Empírico de la Relación entre Competencia e Inversión en el Servicio de Telefonía Móvil Peruano," Documentos de Trabajo 42, OSIPTEL.
    10. Kouassi YEBOUA, 2021. "Fiscal policy and growth-inequality tradeoffs: Bayesian evidence from Cote d’Ivoire," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 297-310, Spring.
    11. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    12. Valeriu Nalban, 2015. "Do Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models improve density forecasting accuracy? The case of the Czech Republic and Romania," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 60-74, March.
    13. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a BVAR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 76-87, December.
    14. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2019. "Impacts of China's crash on Asia-Pacific financial integration: Volatility interdependence, information transmission and market co-movement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-46.
    15. André M. Marques, 2022. "Reviewing demand regimes in open economies with Penn World Table data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 730-751, December.
    16. Mercy Toluwase Ayodele & Philip O. Alege, 2021. "Oil Price Volatility and Renewable Energy Consumption in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 470-478.
    17. Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Argyropoulou, Despoina & Androulakis, Georgios, 2022. "Asymmetric economic effects via the dependence structure of green bonds and financial stress index," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    18. Pauwels, Koen & Demirci, Ceren & Yildirim, Gokhan & Srinivasan, Shuba, 2016. "The impact of brand familiarity on online and offline media synergy," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 739-753.
    19. Mihaela SIMIONESCU & Yuriy BILAN, 2013. "The Accuracy Of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based On Bayesian Vectorial-Autoregressive Models. Comparative Analysis Romania-Poland," THE YEARBOOK OF THE "GH. ZANE" INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 22(1), pages 5-10.
    20. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado, 2017. "Desempleo y criminalidad en los estados de la frontera norte de México: un enfoque espacial bayesiano de vectores auto-regresivos. (Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a sp," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 25-58, May.
    22. Zwick, Lina, 2015. "International liquidity shocks and domestic loan supply in the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 564, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2017. "Prévisions de l’inflation et de la croissance en zone CEMAC [Inflation and real growth forecasts in CEMAC zone]," MPRA Paper 116433, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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