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A Red Letter Day?

Author

Listed:
  • Dornbusch, Rudiger
  • Favero, Carlo A.
  • Giavazzi, Francesco

Abstract

This paper discusses a number of issues that the newly constituted board of the European Central Bank (ECB) will face early on. We show how conducting a European monetary policy is very different from living under the protective umbrella of the Bundesbank. We discuss voting on the ECB board, and argue that the ability to communicate to the public will be a critical factor for the success of the new institution. We also ask how a single monetary policy – a common change in the interest rate controlled by the ECB – is transmitted to the economy of the member countries. We show that the monetary process differs significantly inside EMU: initially, at least, the cost of a disinflation episode could thus fall very unequally on a few member countries because they have a combination of financial structure that spreads a monetary contraction widely, and a wage-price structure that is relatively inflexible. Moreover, this process is sure to evolve, in part, as a result of the financial industry restructuring that is already underway and will be accentuated by the common money. Furthermore, as the ‘Lucas principle’ suggests, the wage-price process itself will adapt to the changing focus of European monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dornbusch, Rudiger & Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 1998. "A Red Letter Day?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1804
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    Cited by:

    1. Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 03/102, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 1543-1569.
    4. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?," Working Papers 0115, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Javier Valles & Jose Vinals, 1999. "On the real effects of the monetary policy: A central banker's view," Working Papers 38, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Francesco Carlucci & Alessandro Girardi, 2004. "National Specifities and Monetary-Policy Trasmission in Europe," Working Papers 73, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
    7. Kilponen, Juha, 2003. "A Positive theory of monetary policy and robust control," Research Discussion Papers 18/2003, Bank of Finland.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:38:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2002. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects? A Look at the Investment Decisions of Italian Firms," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, pages 29-59.
    10. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    11. Belke, Ansgar H. & Herz, Bernhard & Vogel, Lukas, 2005. "Structural Reforms and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1798, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Kremp Elizabeth & Stöß Elmar, 2001. "Estimating the Borrowing Behavior of French and German Firms. An Econometric Analysis / Verschuldungsverhalten französischer und deutscher Unternehmen. Eine ökonometrische Analyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(5-6), pages 620-647, October.
    13. Ivo Arnold, 1999. "The third leg of the stool: Financial stability as a prerequisite for EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 280-305.
    14. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2002. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects? A Look at the Investment Decisions of Italian Firms," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, pages 29-59.
    15. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2399-2415.
    16. Louis, Rosmy J & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2009. "Are Mortgage Rates Bubbling Up Trouble for Canadas Metropolitan Housing Sector?," MPRA Paper 17245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Leon, Costas, 2006. "The Taylor rule: can it be supported by the data?," MPRA Paper 1650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hallet, Martin, 1999. "The Impact of EMU on cohesion - further research needed?," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa087, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2000. "Regionalisation versus globalisation in European financial market integration: Evidence from co-integration analyses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1005-1043, June.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Are Monetary Rules and Reforms Complements or Substitutes? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Working Papers 129, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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    22. Mark Holmes, 2000. "Monetary Shocks, Inflation and the Asymmetric Adjustment of EU Output," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 253-263.
    23. Colombatto Enrico, 1998. "The Birth and Failure of the EMU Project," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2-3), pages 1-20, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit channel; European Central Bank; European Monetary Union; monetary conditions index;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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