Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Bloor, Chris & Matheson, Troy, 2011. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 26-42, January.
References listed on IDEAS
- Matheson, Troy, 2010.
"Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 906-920, September.
- Troy Matheson, 2006. "Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999.
"Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148
Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Troy D. Matheson, 2006.
"Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Troy Matheson, 2005. "Factor model forecasts for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Matheson, Troy D, 2006. "Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand," MPRA Paper 807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Matheson, Troy D., 2010.
"An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys,"
Economic Modelling,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
- Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1993.
"A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model,"
NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 179-212
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 14, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1034, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997.
"Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
- David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004.
"Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, May.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008.
"Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 318-328, October.
- De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & De Mol, Christine, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series 700, European Central Bank.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005.
"Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
- Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010.
"Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand,"
Empirical Economics,
Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
- Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997.
"Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
- Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
- Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2013.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting,
Elsevier.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015.
"Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
- Giannone, Domenico & Bańbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 1733, European Central Bank.
- Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza, 2014. "Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018.
"Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Sciences Po publications 18, Sciences Po.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 1808, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013.
"Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237,
Elsevier.
- Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015.
"Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers 18467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2012. "Prior selection for vector autoregressions," Working Paper Series 1494, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-002, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:38:p:3880-3890 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Jansen, W. Jos & Jin, Xiaowen & de Winter, Jasper M., 2016.
"Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-436.
- Jos Jansen & Xiaowen Jin & Jasper de Winter, 2012. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," DNB Working Papers 365, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 16/126, International Monetary Fund.
- Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013.
"Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis,"
Economic Modelling,
Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
- Kurmas Akdogan & Selen Baser & Meltem Gulenay Chadwick & Dilara Ertug & Timur Hulagu & Sevim Kosem & Fethi Ogunc & M. Utku Ozmen & Necati Tekatli, 2012. "Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Turkey and a Forecast Combination Analysis," Working Papers 1209, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- repec:nzb:nzbbul:jul2016:07 is not listed on IDEAS
- Chris Bloor, 2009. "The use of statistical forecasting models at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 21-26, June.
- repec:eee:jimfin:v:93:y:2019:i:c:p:142-166 is not listed on IDEAS
- Auer, Simone, 2019.
"Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
- Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Foreign Investment Income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2014-02, Swiss National Bank.
- Auer, Simone, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
- Adam Richardson, 2016. "Behind the scenes of an OCR decision in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-15, July.
- Chris McDonald, 2012. "Kiwi drivers the New Zealand dollar experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Chris McDonald & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Evaluating density forecasts: model combination strategies versus the RBNZ," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- repec:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2297-9 is not listed on IDEAS
More about this item
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2009-06-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2009-06-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-06-03 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2009/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.