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Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach

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  • Koop, G

Abstract

This paper describes Bayesian techniques for analysing the effects of aggregate shocks on macroeconomic time-series. Rather than calculate point estimates of the response of a time-series to an aggregate shock, we calculate the whole probability density function of the response and use Monte-Carlo or Gibbs sampling techniques to evaluate its properties. The proposed techniques impose identification restrictions in a way that includes the uncertainty in these restrictions, and thus are an improvement over traditional approaches that typically use least-squares techniques supplemented by bootstrapping. We apply these techniques in the context of two different models. A key finding is that measures of uncertainty, such as posterior standard deviations, are much larger than are their classical counterparts. Copyright 1992 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Koop, G, 1992. "Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec..
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:7:y:1992:i:4:p:395-411
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    Cited by:

    1. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    2. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November.
    3. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    4. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 03/102, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, Diciembre.
    6. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    8. Gregor Semieniuk & Ellis Scharfenaker, 2014. "A Bayesian Latent Variable Mixture Model for Filtering Firm Profit Rate," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2014-1, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    9. Loberto, Michele & Perricone, Chiara, 2017. "Does trend inflation make a difference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-375.
    10. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt & Mamata Parhi & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 2010. "A Bayesian Analysis of Total Factor Productivity Persistence," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 35(1), pages 363-372.
    11. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification in structural VAR models with different volatility regimes," Departmental Working Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    12. Lopes, Hedibert Freitas & Moreira, Ajax R. Bello & Schmidt, Alexandra Mello, 1999. "Hyperparameter estimation in forecast models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 387-410, February.
    13. Ossama Mikhail, 2005. "What Happens After A Technology Shock? A Bayesian Perspective," Macroeconomics 0510016, EconWPA.
    14. Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F.J., 1992. "Posterior inference on long-run impulse responses," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2838, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

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