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Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia

  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

  • Sergio Ocampo

    ()

  • Norberto Rodríguez

    ()

Este artículo utiliza la metodología VAR-X estructural para explicar por qué creció el desempleo en Colombia desde niveles cercanos al 7% en 1995:I hasta 19% en el 2000:I, y por qué permaneció en niveles de dos dígitos durante la década siguiente. Se trató de una combinación infortunada de choques y de instituciones laborales mal diseñadas para enfrentarlos. La participación laboral se incrementó fuertemente desde comienzos de los años noventa por motivos demográficos y como respuesta a la crisis de 1998-2000; la demanda cayó abruptamente en esos mismos años, debido a la parada súbita de flujos de capital y a una política fiscal y monetaria procíclica; y la dinámica de laproductividad ha sido excesivamente lenta, principalmente en la década del 2000. Los costos no salariales y el salario mínimo real también han tenido un papel importante en la explicación del nivel y de la persistencia del desempleo.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
Issue (Month): 66 (December)
Pages: 128-173

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