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La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Se estima el componente de largo plazo de la tasa de desempleo en Colombia para los últimos veinte años. De acuerdo con los resultados, los principales determinantes del componente permanente de la tasa de desempleo son el salario real por hora, los costos laborales no salariales y la tasa de acumulación de capital. Dadas las propiedades estadísticas de las variables se adoptó un enfoque de cointegración.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 388, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:388
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, June.
    2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    3. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
    4. Francisco Javier LASSO VALDERRAMA, 2002. "Nueva metodología de Encuesta de hogares. ¿Más o menos desempleados?," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003282, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    5. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Ana Maria Iregui & Jesus Otero, 2003. "On the dynamics of unemployment in a developing economy: Colombia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 895-898.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    9. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    11. Jesús Antonio Bejarano RojasAuthor-Email: jbejarro@banrep.gov.co.Author-Homepage:, 2005. "Estimación estructural y análisis de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana para Colombia," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 64-117, Junio.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Carl E. Walsh, 1998. "The natural rate, NAIRU, and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep18.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, Diciembre.
    2. Ludek Niedermayer, 2008. "Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 213-219 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hernando Vargas, 2008. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Colombia: major changes and current features," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 183-211 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:482088 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," Borradores de Economia 453, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2008. "La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia y sus determinantes," Borradores de Economia 491, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ, 2011. "Impuestos parafiscales y mercado laboral: Un análisis de Equilibrio General Computable," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 008954, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    8. José Armando Hernández Bernal, 2010. "Impacto del pago de los aportes parafiscales en la generación de excedentes de las pequeñas empresas de la industria manufacturera del calzado," REVISTA EQUIDAD Y DESARROLLO, UNIVERSIDAD DE LA SALLE, June.
    9. Gustavo Hernández, 2012. "Payroll Taxes and the Labor Market: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 49(1), pages 99-123, May.
    10. Fabio Sánchez & Valentina Duque & Mauricio Ruíz, 2009. "Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duración del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 005540, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de desempleo; costos laborales distintos del salario; acumulación de capital; cointegración;

    JEL classification:

    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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