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Taylor rules and the Great Inflation

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  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
  • Papell, David H.

Abstract

Can US monetary policy in the 1970s be described by a stabilizing Taylor rule when policy is evaluated with real-time inflation and output gap data? Using economic research on the full employment level of unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment published between 1970 and 1977 to construct real-time output gap measures for periods of peak unemployment, we find that the Federal Reserve did not follow a Taylor rule if appropriate measures are used. We estimate Taylor rules and find no evidence that monetary policy stabilized inflation, even allowing for changes in the inflation target. While monetary policy was stabilizing with respect to inflation forecasts, the forecasts systematically under-predicted inflation following the 1970s recessions and this does not constitute evidence of stabilizing policy. We also find that the Federal Reserve responded too strongly to negative output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:903-918
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.05.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Ajay Pratap & Nikolaou, Michael, 2014. "Optimal rules for central bank interest rates subject to zero lower bound," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-67.
    2. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2015. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2015/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 913-930, June.
    4. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 4-17.
    5. López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2013. "Interest rates, government purchases and the Taylor rule in recessions and expansions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 382-392.
    6. David H. Papell & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & Ruxandra Prodan, 2016. "Policy Rule Legislation in Practice," Book Chapters, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    7. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David Papell, 2013. "Real-Time Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2013-140-17, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    8. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2013. "Taylor's Rule Versus Taylor Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 71-93, February.
    9. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2016. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 282-301, May.
    10. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2013. "(Taylor) Rules versus Discretion in U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2013-198-44, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    11. Jui-Chung Yang & Ke-Li Xu, 2013. "Estimation and Inference under Weak Identi cation and Persistence: An Application on Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Reaction Function," 2013 Papers pya307, Job Market Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; Great Inflation; Natural rate of unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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