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Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation

  • Sharon Kozicki
  • P.A. Tinsley

This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of US monetary policy an in the implied central bank target for inflation. Empirical results and FOMC transcripts support a neglected interpretation of policy during the Great inflation of the 1970’s

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File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/Reswkpap/PDF/RWP05-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 05-04.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp05-04
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  17. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1977. "Empirical issues in monetary policy : A review of monetary aggregates and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 87-101, January.
  18. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 9274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
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  24. Allan H. Meltzer, 2005. "Origins of the Great Inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-176.
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  26. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2005. "Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 138, Society for Computational Economics.
  27. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
  28. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  29. John H. Kalchbrenner & Peter A. Tinsley & James Berry & Bonnie Garrett, 1978. "On filtering auxiliary information in short-run monetary policy," Special Studies Papers 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  34. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
  35. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
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