IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation

  • Sharon Kozicki
  • P.A. Tinsley

This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of US monetary policy an in the implied central bank target for inflation. Empirical results and FOMC transcripts support a neglected interpretation of policy during the Great inflation of the 1970’s

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/Reswkpap/PDF/RWP05-04.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 05-04.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp05-04
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1 Memorial Drive, Kansas City, MO 64198-0001
Phone: (816) 881-2254
Web page: http://www.kansascityfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Kalchbrenner, J. H. & Tinsley, P. A. & Berry, J. & Garrett, B., 1977. "On filtering auxiliary information in short-run monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 39-84, January.
  3. F. Collard & H. Dellas, 2003. "The great inflation of the 1970s," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. P.A.V.B. Swamy & P.A. Tinsley, 1976. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Special Studies Papers 78, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John A. Tatom, 1978. "Economic growth and unemployment: a reappraisal of the conventional view," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 16-23.
  7. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, . "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 01/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-75, April.
  9. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
  12. Sharon Kozicki & P. Tinsley, 2006. "Minding the Gap: Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 295-327, May.
  13. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1977. "Empirical issues in monetary policy : A review of monetary aggregates and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 87-101, January.
  14. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0478, European Central Bank.
  15. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2005. "Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 138, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2004. "On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 152, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Nicoletta Batini & Joe Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 182, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
  20. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 9274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Allan H. Meltzer, 2005. "Origins of the Great Inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-176.
  22. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
  23. P.A. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen & G. Fries, 1982. "The short-run volatility of money stock targeting," Special Studies Papers 169, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Froyen, Richard T. & Waud, Roger N., 2002. "The determinants of Federal Reserve policy actions: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 413-428, September.
  25. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  26. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  27. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
  28. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
  29. William Poole, 1975. "Monetary Policy during the Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 123-140.
  30. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  31. Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Real-time estimation of trend output and the illusion of interest rate smoothing," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-34.
  32. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  33. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
  34. Francois R. Velde, 2004. "Poor hand or poor play? the rise and fall of inflation in the U.S," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 34-51.
  35. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp05-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lu Dayrit)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.