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How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data

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  • Gerberding, Christina
  • Worms, Andreas
  • Seitz, Franz

Abstract

Papers estimating the reaction function of the Bundesbank generally find that its monetary policy from the 1970s to 1998 can well be captured by a standard Taylor rule according to which the central bank responds to the output gap and to deviations of inflation from target, but not to monetary growth. This result is at odds with the Bundesbank´s claim that it followed a strategy of monetary targeting. This paper analyses whether this apparent contradiction is due to (a) the use of ex post data which do not necessarily match policy makers? real-time information sets and (b) the omission of important explanatory variables. Accordingly, we compile a real-time data set for Germany including the Bundesbank?s own estimates of potential output and use it to reestimate the Bundesbank?s reaction function. We find that the use of real-time data considerably changes the results. Moreover, when adding the change in the output gap as well as deviations of money growth from target to the set of explanatory variables, we find that both variables are highly significant. This suggests that the Bundesbank took its monetary targets seriously, but also responded to deviations of expected inflation and output growth from target.

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  • Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2291
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    Cited by:

    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
    2. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
    3. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2251, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2009. "Perhaps the 1970s FOMC did what it said it did," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 842-855, September.
    5. Hulsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Bank loan supply and monetary policy transmission in Germany: An assessment based on matching impulse responses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2893-2910, October.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & John Hassler & Tim Jenkinson & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 11-57, February.
    7. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 277-292, December.
    8. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
    9. Andreas Beyer & Vitor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2008. "Opting Out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy After the Break Down of Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 14596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-341, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Sell, Friedrich L., 2005. "Zins- und Geldmengensteuerung in der offenen Volkswirtschaft: Eine Referenz an William Poole (und zugleich eine Kritik an der "Neuen Keynesianischen Makroökonomik")," Working Papers in Economics 2005,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    12. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
    14. Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "Has the economic crisis of 2007-2009 changed the expectation formation process in the Euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1808-1814, July.
    15. Lukas Vogel & Werner Roeger & Bernhard Herz, 2006. "Optimal Simple Rules for Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 021, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    16. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    17. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
    18. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew T. & Christoffel, Kai, 2007. "Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2439-2466, November.
    19. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Taylor rule; real-time data; Bundesbank;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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