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Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?

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  • Jan Jacobs
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Abstract

This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our analysis is the construction and use of a real-time dataset. We conclude that the Ifo indicators play a role in explaining revisions, but counterintuitively the business situation indicator performs better than the production indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1205
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1205.pdf
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    1. Fritsche Ulrich & Stephan Sabine, 2002. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(3), pages 289-315, June.
    2. Christopher Bajada, 2002. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 276-286.
    3. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    4. Egginton, Don M. & Pick, Andreas & Vahey, Shaun P., 2002. "'Keep it real!': a real-time UK macro data set," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 15-20, September.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    6. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    7. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
    8. Erich Langmantel, 1999. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(16-17), pages 16-21, October.
    9. Schröder, Michael & Hüfner, Felix P., 2002. "Forecasting economic activity in Germany: how useful are sentiment indicators?," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-56, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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    Keywords

    Ifo Business Survey indicators; German industrial production; real-time analysis; data revision;

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