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Methoden der Konjunkturprognose

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Im Sommer und zum Jahresende veröffentlicht das ifo Institut seine Konjunkturprognosen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Im Frühjahr und im Herbst nimmt es an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute teil. Der Beitrag beschreibt, welche makroökonomischen Aggregate prognostiziert werden und welche Methoden dabei angewandt werden. Im Einzelnen werden die ökonometrische Prognose, der Indikatoransatz und das iterativ-analytische Verfahren vorgestellt. Außerdem wird auf die besonderen Spezifika der ifo Konjunkturprognose eingegangen.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2003/ifosd_2003_4_1.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 04 (02)
Pages: 7-23

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:04:p:7-23
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  1. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
  2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
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