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Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose

Listed author(s):
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


Anfang August hat das ifo Institut seine letzte Konjunkturprognose veröffentlicht. In der zweiten Oktoberhälfte legen die sechs an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose beteiligten Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute die nächste Schätzung vor. Da häufig die Frage gestellt wird, wie derartige Prognosen eigentlich zustandekommen, wird in dem Beitrag beschrieben, welche Aggregate prognostiziert und welche Methoden dabei angewandt werden. Vorgestellt werden der Indikatoransatz, der in der Regel für kurzfriste Vorausschätzungen herangezogen wird, die ökonometrische Prognose, die auf der Regressionsanalyse aufbaut, sowie die iterativ-analytische Prognose, die das umfassendste, flexibelste und am weitesten verbreitete Verfahren darstellt.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 51 (1998)
Issue (Month): 28 (October)
Pages: 07-19

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:51:y:1998:i:28:p:07-19
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