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Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Anfang August hat das ifo Institut seine letzte Konjunkturprognose veröffentlicht. In der zweiten Oktoberhälfte legen die sechs an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose beteiligten Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute die nächste Schätzung vor. Da häufig die Frage gestellt wird, wie derartige Prognosen eigentlich zustandekommen, wird in dem Beitrag beschrieben, welche Aggregate prognostiziert und welche Methoden dabei angewandt werden. Vorgestellt werden der Indikatoransatz, der in der Regel für kurzfriste Vorausschätzungen herangezogen wird, die ökonometrische Prognose, die auf der Regressionsanalyse aufbaut, sowie die iterativ-analytische Prognose, die das umfassendste, flexibelste und am weitesten verbreitete Verfahren darstellt.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:51:y:1998:i:28:p:07-19
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Grömling, Michael, 2002. "Konjunkturprognosen: Methoden, Risiken und Treffsicherheiten," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 18-26.
    2. Schumacher, Christian & Loose, Brigitte & Langmantel, Erich & Gottschalk, Jan & Fritsche, Ulrich & Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 906, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "The joint economic analysis of the economic research institutes," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(08), pages 40-42, April.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Business forecasts and forecasting risks," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    8. Edda Müller, 2003. "Consumer protection and competition," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 3-6, February.

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