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Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Die in jüngster Zeit vorgenommenen Revidierungen der Prognosen für Deutschland und die Weltwirtschaft führten teilweise zu Irritationen und auch zu Kritik an den Prognosen. Offenbar gibt es in der Öffentlichkeit Missverständnisse über das Ziel von Konjunkturprognosen und über deren Risiken. Ziel der Prognosen ist es, Richtung und Stärke der Konjunktur und die konjunkturellen Wendepunkte möglichst gut abzuschätzen. Da sich die Rahmenbedingungen der Schätzung ändern können, sind Prognosen naturgemäß mit Risiken behaftet. Deshalb ist es wichtig, die Prognosen entsprechend den Veränderungen der Rahmenbedingungen zu revidieren. Angesichts der vielfältigen Fehlerquellen und Risiken erwiesen sich die Prognosen des ifo Instituts, den tatsächlichen Wirtschaftsverlauf im Zeitraum 1991 bis 1999 betreffend, als sehr treffsicher.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:16:p:17-21
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2001_16_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
    2. Willi Leibfritz & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Wirtschaftsperspektiven 2001/2002 und Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(04), pages 8-32, September.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "Die Weltkonjunktur und die deutsche Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(13), pages 18-28, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2003: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(03), pages 26-29, February.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Deutsche Konjunktur 2001 - Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(02), pages 32-34, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Prognoseverfahren;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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