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Economy economic activity 2002: Forecasting and reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Last year proved to be a year of disappointed economic hopes for the German economy; the Ifo Institute also had to revise its German forecast downward. The expected economic recovery in the second half of 2002 did not materialise. Attributable for the poor performance of the German economy was the insecurity caused by the Iraq conflict, the rise of the crude oil price and the strong decline in stock market prices. The US economy also proved to be weaker than expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Economy economic activity 2002: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:02:p:20-23
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_2_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Business forecasts and forecasting risks," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    2. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465-465.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Bottoming out," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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