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Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events

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  • Juan C. Perdomo

Abstract

Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can social events be predicted? This question was discussed throughout the 20th century by authors like Merton, Morgenstern, Simon, and others who considered it a central issue in social science methodology. In this work, we provide a modern answer to this old problem. Using recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability, we establish that one can always efficiently predict social events accurately, regardless of how predictions influence data. While achievable, we also show that these predictions are often undesirable, highlighting the limitations of previous desiderata. We end with a discussion of various avenues forward.

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  • Juan C. Perdomo, 2025. "Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events," Papers 2503.11713, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.11713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donald MacKenzie, 2008. "An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633671, December.
    2. Juan C. Perdomo & Tolani Britton & Moritz Hardt & Rediet Abebe, 2023. "Difficult Lessons on Social Prediction from Wisconsin Public Schools," Papers 2304.06205, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
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