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Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen

  • Klinger, Sabine
  • Heilemann, Ullrich

Ungeachtet der vielfältigen Anstrengungen hat sich die Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen seit den 1970er Jahren nicht verbessert. Deshalb mahnen (manche) Ökonomen "mehr Wettbewerb" unter den Prognoseinstituten an – und hoffen, dass die allokative Effizienz marktlicher Lösungen auch bei Makroprognosen eintritt. Allerdings handelt es sich um sehr spezifische Informationsgüter: Sie ähneln öffentlichen Gütern, ihre Genauigkeit und ihre allgemeine Güte lassen sich schwer messen, aus vergangenen Ergebnissen kann nicht auf den künftigen Erfolg/Misserfolg geschlossen werden. Folgerichtig führt die wettbewerbstheoretische Analyse nicht zu klaren Indizien, dass "mehr Wettbewerb" die Prognosegüte erhöht. Dieses noch vage Ergebnis wird von einer empirischen Untersuchung ausgewählter nationaler Prognosemärkte unterstrichen: Weder die Anzahl der Prognoseinstitute noch das Verhältnis von kommerziellen zu nicht-kommerziellen Prognostikern zeigte einen positiven Einfluss auf die Treffsicherheit. Trotz der Skepsis der Autoren darüber, dass makroökonomische Prognosen zurzeit überhaupt wesentlich verbesserbar wären, werden Vorschläge unterbreitet, wie der Prognosewettbewerb intensiviert werden könnte.

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Paper provided by Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen in its series Technical Reports with number 2005,16.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200516
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  2. Ullrich Heilemann, 2004. "Besser geht's nicht - Genauigkeitsgrenzen von Konjunkturprognosen As Good as it Gets - Limits of Accuracy of Macroeconomic Short Term Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(1-2), pages 51-64, February.
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  10. Heilemann, Ullrich, 2002. "Increasing the transparency of macroeconometric forecasts: a report from the trenches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 85-105.
  11. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-74, September.
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