Besser geht’s nicht – Genauigkeitsgrenzen von Konjunkturprognosen / As Good as it Gets – Limits of Accuracy of Macroeconomic Short Term Forecasts
The paper aims at determining upper boundaries of accuracy (“error minima”) for German macroeconomic forecasts. The study is based on simulations with the RWI-model, a medium sized macroeconometric model for the FRG. A first upper limit of forecast accuracy is fixed by the accuracy of predetermined variables and outside sample stability of model relationships. Further limits are found by a decomposition of model forecast errors into “equation errors”, “model errors” and “errors of dynamics”. For forecasts of growth and inflation the model simulations suggest that (1) present forecast errors do not seem to have much potential for improvement; (2) primarily this potential seems to lie on the single equation level.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 224 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jbnst|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Wallis, Kenneth F., 2003.
"Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
- Wallis, Kenneth F., 2001. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts and the Bank of England's fan charts," Working Paper Series 0083, European Central Bank.
- Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 181, Royal Economic Society.
- Oller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-315.
- Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers 72, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 0082, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Ullrich Heilemann & Herman O. Stekler, 2010. "Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?," Working Papers 2010-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Feb 2012.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:1-2:p:51-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.