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Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?

  • Ullrich Heilemann

    (Univeristy of Leipzig)

  • Herman O. Stekler

    (Department of Economics The George Washington University)

This paper asks whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine one-year-ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967 to 2010 by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those for the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons of these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroecono-metric model indicate that accuracy can be improved but it will be difficult to achieve.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2010-001.pdf
File Function: Second version, 2012
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Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2010-001.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision: Feb 2012
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2010-001
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  21. repec:gwc:wpaper:2008-9 is not listed on IDEAS
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