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Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast

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  • Nolte, Ingmar
  • Pohlmeier, Winfried

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  • Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:1:p:15-28
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    1. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
    2. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    3. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1985. "Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 948-975, December.
    4. Kaiser, Ulrich & Spitz, Alexandra, 2000. "Quantification of qualitative data using ordered probit models with an application to a business survey in the German service sector," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-58, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie, 1987. "On the normality of probability distributions of inflation and GNP forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 269-279.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:55:y:1988:i:219:p:317-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
    10. repec:bla:econom:v:42:y:1975:i:166:p:123-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Batchelor, R. A., 1982. "Expectations, output and inflation : The European experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25.
    12. Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1986. "An Econometric Model of U.K. Manufacturing Employment Using Survey Data on Expected Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 297-316, October.
    13. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002. "Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 117-135, March.
    14. Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Lahiri, Kajal, 1981. "On the estimation of inflationary expectations from qualitative responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 89-102, May.
    15. Fishe, Raymond P H & Idson, Todd L, 1990. "Information-Induced Heteroscedasticity in Price Expectations Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 304-312, May.
    16. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-185, April-Jun.
    17. Begg,Iain & Henry,Brian, 1998. "Applied Economics and Public Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521624145, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krüger Fabian & Pohlmeier Winfried & Mokinski Frieder, 2011. "Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 63-81, February.
    2. Stolzenburg, Ulrich & Lux, Thomas, 2010. "Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers 1659, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
    4. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    5. Kjellberg, David, 2006. "Measuring Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío & Senra, Eva, 2011. "Forecast combination through dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 224-237, April.
    7. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    8. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," IREA Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2018.
    10. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    11. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
    12. Fabian Krüger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-43, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    13. repec:amu:wpaper:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    15. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    16. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    17. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 323-340, March.
    18. Panagiotis Papaioannnou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Papers 1310.5306, arXiv.org.
    19. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.
    20. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming”," AQR Working Papers 201706, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2017.
    21. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.

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