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Central bank communication and the perception of monetary policy by financial market experts

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  • Schmidt, Sandra
  • Nautz, Dieter

Abstract

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Sandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Central bank communication and the perception of monetary policy by financial market experts," Discussion Papers 2010/29, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201029
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    Cited by:

    1. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Recent monetary policy effects on Japanese macroeconomy," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 12-17, October.
    2. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Are all Central Bank Asset Purchases the Same? Different Rationales, Different Effects," Working Papers hal-03554141, HAL.
    3. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
    4. Yutaka Kurihara, 2014. "Do European Central Bank Announcements Influence Stock Prices and Exchange Rates?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 1-1.
    5. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2020. "Monetary policy shocks from the consumer perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 159-173.
    6. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    7. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Working Papers hal-04159848, HAL.
    8. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 235-256.
    9. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    10. Lang, Gunnar, 2012. "Lessons of the financial crisis for the attractiveness of European financial centers," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-080, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Lars winkelmann & Markus Bibinger & Tobias Linzert, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Nautz, Dieter & Pagenhardt, Laura & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-115.
    13. Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus & Linzert, Tobias, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79721, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
    16. Yutaka KURIHARA, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Stock/Foreign Exchange Market Liquidity: The Japanese Case," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, March.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Pragidis, 2019. "Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 91-112, February.
    18. Dieter Nautz & Aleksei Netsunajev & Till Strohsal, 2016. "Aggregate Employment, Job Polarization and Inequalities: A Transatlantic Perspective," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Lars Winkelmann & Markus Bibinger & Tobias Linzert, 2016. "ECB Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification Through Cojumps in Interest Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 613-629, June.
    20. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    21. Linzert, Tobias & Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus, 2014. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," Working Paper Series 1674, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Interest rate forecasts; Survey expectations; Panel random coefficient model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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