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ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates

  • Winkelmann, Lars
  • Bibinger, Markus
  • Linzert, Tobias
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    We propose a new monetary policy surprise measure based on cojumps in tick-data of a short and long term interest rate. We extend a recently proposed test for cojumps to distinguish policy announcements that shift the short and long end of the yield curve in the same direction (level shift) and policy announcements that shift both ends in opposite directions (rotation). Through level shifts and rotations we identify the source of a policy surprise in a standard Taylor-rule context. Empirical evidence on 133 ECB policy announcements from 2001 to 2012 suggest that markets perceptions about ECB policy preferences has been remarkably stable.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/79721/1/VfS_2013_pid_448.pdf
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    Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79721.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79721
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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    1. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 893-921, 09.
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    3. Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2012. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1443-1453, October.
    7. Brand, Claus & Buncic, Daniel & Turunen, Jarkko, 2006. "The impact of ECB monetary policy decisions and communication on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 0657, European Central Bank.
    8. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
    9. Mardi Dungey & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2010. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury Bond and Futures Markets," NCER Working Paper Series 56, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 20 Jul 2010.
    10. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter.
    11. Andersson, Magnus & Hansen, Lars Jul & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 0631, European Central Bank.
    12. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Eser, Fabian & Carmona Amaro, Marta & Iacobelli, Stefano & Rubens, Marc, 2012. "The use of the Eurosystem's monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2009," Occasional Paper Series 135, European Central Bank.
    14. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 323-340, 03.
    15. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Swanson, Eric, 2007. "Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0817, European Central Bank.
    16. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
    17. Mancini, Cecilia & Gobbi, Fabio, 2012. "Identifying The Brownian Covariation From The Co-Jumps Given Discrete Observations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 249-273, April.
    18. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
    19. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
    20. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 1998. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 242, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Mar 1999.
    21. Evans, Kevin P., 2011. "Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2511-2527, October.
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