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Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements

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  • Evans, Kevin P.
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    Abstract

    This paper applies recent non-parametric intraday jump detection procedures to investigate the presence and importance of intraday jumps in US futures markets. More importantly, the paper investigates the extent to which statistically significant intraday jumps are associated with US macroeconomic news announcements. Jumps are prevalent, large and contribute heavily to total daily price variation. Approximately one third of jumps correspond to US macroeconomic news announcements, with pure announcement effects causing large increases in the absolute sizes of jumps and the informational surprise of the announcement explaining large proportions of the jumps. The statistical and economic significance of news-related jumps is confirmed by results that show higher volatility persistence, predictability of lower frequency returns, larger effects on microstructure variables, jump clustering and co-jumps from these jumps versus non-news-related jumps, although there are some interesting variations across asset classes.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611000896
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 2511-2527

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:2511-2527
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Keywords: Jumps Realised volatility Bipower variation Macro news announcements;

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