Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates
Under rational expectations and efficient markets, the news contained in public information announcements is directly impounded into prices with there being no role for trades in this process of information assimilation. This paper directly tests this assertion using transaction level exchange rate data and a sample of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The main result of the paper is that even information that is publicly and simultaneously released to all market participants is largely impounded into prices via the key micro-level price determinant — order flow. We quantify the role that order flow plays and find that between a half and two thirds of price relevant information is incorporated into prices via the trading process.
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- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
- Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
- Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1994. "Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 317-348, June.
- French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
- Jain, Prem C, 1988. "Response of Hourly Stock Prices and Trading Volume to Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 219-231, April.
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
- Hoffman, Dennis L & Schlagenhauf, Don E, 1985. "The Impact of News and Alternative Theories of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 328-346, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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