IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/geo/guwopa/gueconwpa~00-00-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper provides a new test for whether different-currency assets are imperfect substitutes. Past work on imperfect substitutability in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side, but we use a broad measure of public demand rather than focusing on demand by central banks. Under floating rates, changing public demand has no direct effect on monetary fundamentals, current or future. This provides an opportunity to test for price effects from imperfect substitutability. We develop and estimate a micro portfolio balance model that has both Walrasian and microstructure features. Price effects from imperfect substitutability are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per $1 billion (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to intervention trades in the special case when they are indistinguishable from private trades (i.e., when interventions are sterilized, anonymous, and provide no monetary-policy signal).

Suggested Citation

  • Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2000. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~00-00-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www8.georgetown.edu/departments/economics/pdf/005.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: None
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
    3. Swoboda, Alexander K, 1976. " Comment on P. J. K. Kouri, "The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach."," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 305-308.
    4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    7. Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Fabrizio Perri & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    8. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 5, pages 189-245, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Granger, Clive W J, 1993. "Strategies for Modelling Nonlinear Time-Series Relationships," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(206), pages 233-238, September.
    10. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Time-Varying Liquidity in Foreign Exchange," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 8, pages 325-361, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
    13. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    14. Golub, Stephen S., 1989. "Foreign-currency government debt, asset markets, and balance of payments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 285-294, June.
    15. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    16. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    17. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    18. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1980. "Dealership market : Market-making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March.
    19. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-846, November.
    20. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    21. Dooley, Michael & Isard, Peter, 1982. "A portfolio-balance rational-expectations model of the dollar-mark exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 257-276, May.
    22. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339, Elsevier.
    24. Bjonnes,H. & Rime,D., 2000. "FX trading ... LIVE! : dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Memorandum 29/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    25. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, February.
    26. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
    27. Dominguez, Kathryn Mary, 1990. "Market responses to coordinated central bank intervention," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-163, January.
    28. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    29. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    30. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    31. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Oliver Hansch & Narayan Y. Naik & S. Viswanathan, 1998. "Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1623-1656, October.
    33. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
    34. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    35. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 2000. "Demand Curves for Stocks Do Slope Down: New Evidence from an Index Weights Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 893-912, April.
    36. P. M. Robinson, 1983. "Nonparametric Estimators For Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 185-207, May.
    37. Peter C. Reiss & Ingrid M. Werner, 1998. "Does Risk Sharing Motivate Interdealer Trading?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1657-1703, October.
    38. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    39. Loopesko, Bonnie E., 1984. "Relationships among exchange rates, intervention, and interest rates: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-277, December.
    40. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. "Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
    41. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. "The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-1074, September.
    42. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16, October.
    43. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-477.
    44. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339, Elsevier.
    45. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Bagwell, Laurie Simon, 1992. "Dutch Auction Repurchases: An Analysis of Shareholder Heterogeneity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 71-105, March.
    47. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    48. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1991. "Market Microstructure Effects of Government Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 513-541.
    49. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
    50. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    51. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 1998. "Intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 191-210, February.
    52. Albert S. Kyle & Wei Xiong, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, August.
    53. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    54. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fredriksson, Per G. & List, John A. & Millimet, Daniel L., 2004. "Chasing the smokestack: strategic policymaking with multiple instruments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 387-410, July.
    2. M. Kayalica & Sajal Lahiri, 2005. "Strategic Environmental Policies in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Pierre Salmon, 2003. "The assignment of powers in an open-ended European Union," Post-Print hal-00445601, HAL.
    4. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    5. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    6. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
    7. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    8. Wang, Junfeng & Xu, Xiaoya & Wang, Shimeng & He, Shutong & He, Pan, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on air quality in Northern China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    9. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    10. Wu, Wenqing & Zhu, Dongyang & Liu, Wenyi & Wu, Chia-Huei, 2022. "Empirical research on smart city construction and public health under information and communications technology," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Evans, Richard W., 2012. "Is openness inflationary? Policy commitment and imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1095-1110.
    12. Peter Bofinger & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 81-109, June.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2012. "The Federal Reserve as an Informed Foreign Exchange Trader: 1973–1995," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 127-160, March.
    14. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2016. "On the Evolution of US Foreign-Exchange-Market Intervention: Thesis, Theory, and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 1-26, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "Sterilisierte Devisenmarktinterventionen - ein umstrittenes währungspolitisches Instrument," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(19), pages 34-44, October.
    16. Josh Ederington & Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2005. "Footloose and Pollution-Free," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 92-99, February.
    17. Richard W. Evans, 2007. "Is openness inflationary? Imperfect competition and monetary market power," Globalization Institute Working Papers 01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-12, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. H. Henry Cao & Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Inventory Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 9, pages 363-413, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 51-69.
    7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
    9. M. Frenkel & C. Pierdzionc & G. Stadtmann, 2001. "The foreign exchange market interventions of the European Central Bank," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 249-287.
    10. M. Frenkel & C. Pierdzionc & G. Stadtmann, 2001. "The foreign exchange market interventions of the European Central Bank," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 249-287.
    11. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    12. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    13. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    14. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Local information in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1383-1406, December.
    15. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
    16. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    17. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "A Guided Tour Of The Market Microstructure Approach To Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 903-934, December.
    18. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The influence of actual and unrequited interventions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 171-200.
    19. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May.
    20. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~00-00-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://econ.georgetown.edu/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcia Suss The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marcia Suss to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://econ.georgetown.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.