IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3378.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin, Philippe
  • Rey, Hélène

Abstract

We analyse the impact of financial globalization on asset prices, investment and the possibility of crashes driven by self-fulfilling expectations in emerging markets. In a two-country model with one emerging market (intermediate income level) and one industrialized country (high income level), we show that symmetric liberalization of capital outflows and inflows increases asset prices, investment and income in the emerging market. For intermediate levels of international financial transaction costs, however, we find that pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling, leading to a financial crash. The crash is accompanied by capital flight, a drop in income and investment below the financial autarky level and more market incompleteness. We show that emerging markets are more prone to such a financial crash simply because they have a lower income level and not because of the existence of market failures (moral hazard or credit constraints), bad monetary policies or exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=3378
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters,in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-498 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    5. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-1075, December.
    6. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    8. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 19-38, Autumn.
    13. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    14. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-103, February.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    17. Qinglai Meng & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Can Capital Mobility be Destabilizing?," NBER Working Papers 7263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    20. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits?," NBER Working Papers 8908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    22. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank.
    23. Rene M. Stulz, 1999. "Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 7021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    25. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    26. Charles WYPLOSZ, 2001. "How Risky Is Financial Liberalization In The Developing Countries?," G-24 Discussion Papers 14, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    27. Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?," NBER Working Papers 8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "The flotation of companies on the stock market : A coordination failure model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1101-1125, June.
    29. David J. Mckenzie, 2001. "The Impact of Capital Controls on Growth Convergence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 1-25, June.
    30. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans A., 2005. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 583-613, December.
    31. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    33. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2000. "Financial Market Globalization and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," Discussion Papers 1300, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    36. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Marco Rossi, 1999. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies; Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 99/66, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "Fundamental Determinants of the Asian Crisis: The Role of Financial Fragility and External Imbalances," NBER Chapters,in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 11-41 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
    40. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boghean Carmen, 2014. "Globalization And The Evolution Of The Global Financial System In The Current Financial Crisis," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 418-425, July.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ajit Singh, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, Free Long-Term Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Economic Development," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 191-216, Spring.
    4. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170 Elsevier.
    6. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
    7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 10, pages 415-456 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    9. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Mendicino, Caterina, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 567, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    12. Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Post-Print hal-01045223, HAL.
    13. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Caterina Mendicino, 2004. "Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links," Economics Working Papers 946, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Sulimierska, Malgorzata, 2016. "The impact of capital account liberalisation on productivity growth: the evidence from Poland since 1995," Economics PhD Theses 1216, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters,in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-498 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. repec:eco:journ1:2017-03-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Singh, Ajit, 1994. "How did East Asia grow so fast? Slow progress towards an analytical consensus," MPRA Paper 53435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Olivier Jeanne, 2003. "Comprendre les crises financières internationales," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 23-31.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; financial crises; financial globalization;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.