Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets
We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely. Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are strong effects of the level of integration or segmentation on the expected returns in emerging markets. The expected returns depend both on the level of segmentation of the emerging market itself and on the regional segmentation level. We also find that there is significant time-variation in the betas relative to the world portfolio because of the level of segmentation. For the composite index of the emerging markets we find an annual increase in beta of 0.09 due to decreased segmentation of the emerging markets in our sample period. In terms of expected returns the total effect on the composite index translates into an average decrease of 4.5% per annum. As predicted by our model, the noninvestable assets are more sensitive to the local and less to the regional level of segmentation than the investable assets. These conclusions do not change when using additional control variables. We do not find a clear pattern between volatility and segmentation, however.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"Contagion: How to Measure It?,"
in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
" Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
- Eugene Fama & F. & Kenneth R. French, .
"The Equity Premium.","
CRSP working papers
522, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2002.
"Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence From a Natural Experiment,"
NBER Working Papers
8988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1295-1324, 06.
- Chari, Anusha & Henry, Peter B., 2002. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Research Papers 1736r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83944 is not listed on IDEAS
- Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2003.
"A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-103, February.
- Hali J. Edison & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," International Finance Discussion Papers 708, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004.
"Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?,"
Working Paper Research
53, National Bank of Belgium.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997.
"Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
- Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-24, March.
- Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Erratum [Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies]," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages na, October.
- Rodolfo Martell & Rene M. Stulz, 2003.
"Equity market liberalizations as country IPOs,"
NBER Working Papers
9481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
- Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne & Padmanabhan, Prasad, 1992. "Tests of integration, mild segmentation and segmentation hypotheses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 949-972, September.
- Mayers, David, 1976. "Nonmarketable Assets, Market Segmentation, and the Level of Asset Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 1-12, March.
- de Roon, F.A. & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000. "Hedging pressure effects in futures markets," Other publications TiSEM 3dfe2c9f-3194-4751-9b34-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- René M. Stulz, 1999. "Golbalization, Corporate Finance, And The Cost Of Capital," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 12(3), pages 8-25.
- Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
- Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1999. "Reforming the Global Economic Architecture: Lessons from Recent Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1508-1522, 08.
- Buckberg, Elaine, 1995. "Emerging Stock Markets and International Asset Pricing," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 51-74, January.
- David Hirshleifer, 1988. "Residual Risk, Trading Costs, and Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 173-193.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995.
"Emerging Equity Market Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frans A. de Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, 06.
- Errunza, Vihang R. & Miller, Darius P., 2000. "Market Segmentation and the Cost of the Capital in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 577-600, December.
- Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:78:y:2005:i:3:p:583-613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.