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A model of asset pricing under country risk

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  • Andrade, Sandro C.

Abstract

I develop a formal model that could provide quantitative guidance to practitioners who use sovereign yield spreads in emerging market asset valuation. The model provides analytical formulas relating emerging market stock P/E ratios (and expected returns) to the corresponding average yield spread in sovereign bonds. In the model, sovereign yield spreads carry information about the likelihood of a negative regime change in an emerging market ("country risk"), under the common assumption that the regime change is associated with a hostile renegotiation of the country's foreign debt. In the model, country risk is priced because the regime change may be endogenously associated with bad states of the global economy. Data from emerging markets are consistent with some of the model's quantitative and qualitative predictions.

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  • Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:4:p:671-695
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
    2. Zaremba, Adam, 2016. "Risk-based explanation for the country-level size and value effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 226-233.
    3. Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002," Working Papers Series 211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Warnes, Ignacio & Warnes, Pablo E., 2014. "Country risk and the cost of equity in emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 15-27.
    5. Rui Esteves & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1515-1545, October.
    6. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "A cross-volatility index for hedging the country risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-41.
    7. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    8. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino & Mariana O. Machado de Sousa, 2011. "BRIC and the U.S. Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Stocks and Bonds Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0764, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    9. Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2013. "Sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4217-4225.
    10. González, Maximiliano & Garay, Urbi & Rosso, John, 2014. "The cost of equity in emerging markets: The case of Latin America," Galeras. Working Papers Series 038, Universidad de Los Andes. Facultad de Administración. School of Management.
    11. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Geographical diversification with a World Volatility Index," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-82.
    12. repec:oup:rasset:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:112-152. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Umit Hacioglu & Hasan Dincer, 2013. "Evaluation of conflict hazard and financial risk in the E7 economies’ capital markets," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 79-102.
    14. Sun, David & Chow, Da-Ching, 2014. "Forgive, or Award, Your Debtor? - A Barrier Option Approach," MPRA Paper 44826, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2014.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2016. "Political risk and international valuation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-23.

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