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A model of asset pricing under country risk

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  • Andrade, Sandro C.

Abstract

I develop a formal model that could provide quantitative guidance to practitioners who use sovereign yield spreads in emerging market asset valuation. The model provides analytical formulas relating emerging market stock P/E ratios (and expected returns) to the corresponding average yield spread in sovereign bonds. In the model, sovereign yield spreads carry information about the likelihood of a negative regime change in an emerging market ("country risk"), under the common assumption that the regime change is associated with a hostile renegotiation of the country's foreign debt. In the model, country risk is priced because the regime change may be endogenously associated with bad states of the global economy. Data from emerging markets are consistent with some of the model's quantitative and qualitative predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:4:p:671-695
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    5. Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2013. "Sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4217-4225.
    6. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
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    10. Sun, David & Chow, Da-Ching, 2014. "Forgive, or Award, Your Debtor? - A Barrier Option Approach," MPRA Paper 44826, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2014.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2016. "Political risk and international valuation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-23.
    12. Rui Esteves & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1515-1545, October.
    13. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "A cross-volatility index for hedging the country risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-41.
    14. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
    15. Ruediger Frey & Lars Roesler & Dan Lu, 2017. "Corporate Security Prices in Structural Credit Risk Models with Incomplete Information: Extended Version," Papers 1701.04780, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    16. Zaremba, Adam, 2016. "Risk-based explanation for the country-level size and value effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 226-233.
    17. Ashraf Helmy & Osama Wagdi, 2016. "Political Risks and Their Economic Effects: Evidence from Egypt," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(7), pages 1-94, July.
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    19. González, Maximiliano & Garay, Urbi & Rosso, John, 2014. "The cost of equity in emerging markets: The case of Latin America," Galeras. Working Papers Series 038, Universidad de Los Andes. Facultad de Administración. School of Management.
    20. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    21. Sandro C. Andrade & Vidhi Chhaochharia, 2018. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1707-1751.
    22. Andrade, Sandro C. & Ekponon, Adelphe & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2023. "Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 172-197.
    23. Adam Zaremba, 2018. "Country Risk and Expected Returns Across Global Equity Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(4), pages 374-398, September.

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