A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt
Few sovereign debtors have repudiated their obligations entirely. But despite the significant sanctions at the disposal of lenders, many borrowers have been able to consistently negotiate for reduced repayments. This paper presents a model of the on-going bargaining process that determines repayment levels. We derive a bargaining equilibrium in which countries with large debts achieve negotiated partial default. The ability to credibly threaten more draconian penalties in the event of repudiation may be of no benefit to lenders. Furthermore, unanticipated increases in world interest rates may actually help the borrowers by making lenders more inpatient for a negotiated settlement. Finally, Western governments may be induced to make payments to facilitate reschedulings even though efficient agreements will be reached without their intervention.
|Date of creation:||Dec 1986|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 95, No. 6, December 1988.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cohen, Daniel & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986.
"Growth and external debt under risk of debt repudiation,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 529-560, June.
- Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Working Papers 1703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1987. " Issues of Strategic Trade Policy for Small Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 349-367.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1987.
"Till Debt Do Us Part: The US Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920-1955,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barry Eichengreen, 1987. "Til Debt Do Us Part: The U.S. Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920-1955," NBER Working Papers 2394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anat R. Admati & Motty Perry, 1987. "Strategic Delay in Bargaining," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 345-364.
- Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1983. "Some Aspects of the 1982-83 Brazilian Payments Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 515-552.
- Steven C. Kyle & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Developing Country Debt and the Market Value of Large Commercial Banks," NBER Working Papers 1470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982.
"Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1986.
"The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "The Pricing of Bonds and Bank Loans in International Markets: An Empirical Analysis of Developing Countries' Foreign Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 1689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1984. "Involuntary Unemployment as a Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1351-1364, November.
- Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991.
"The Pure Theory of Country Risk,"
in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Taylor, Lance, 1986. "Developing country finance and debt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-265, June.
- Roth, Alvin E, 1985. "A Note on Risk Aversion in a Perfect Equilibrium Model of Bargaining," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 207-211, January.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1990. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: 2nd Edition," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 82, January.
- Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
- Moran, Theodore H., 1973. "Transnational Strategies of Protection and Defense by Multinational Corporations: Spreading the Risk and Raising the Cost for Nationalization in Natural Resources," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 273-287, March.
- John Sutton, 1986. "Non-Cooperative Bargaining Theory: An Introduction," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 709-724.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.