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The pure theory of country risk

  • Eaton, Jonathan
  • Gersovitz, Mark
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E.

This paper attempts to survey, and to put into perspective, recent lterature that has analyzed the nature of credit relations between developed and developing countries.This analysis has made use of recent advances in the economics of information and strategic interaction. Traditional concepts of solvency and liquidity are of little help in understanding problems of soverign debt. Creditors do not have the means to seize the assets of a borrower in default. Hence the borrower who is expected eventually to repay his debts should be able to borrow to meet any current debt-service obligations. A problem that is essential to a theory of international lending is that of enforcement. The difficulty is one of ensuring that the two sides of a loan contract adhere to it, in particular that the borrower repays the lender and the lenders can commit themselves to penalize the borrower if he does not.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 30 (1986)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 481-513

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:30:y:1986:i:3:p:481-513
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  1. Franklin Allen, 1983. "Credit Rationing and Payment Incentives," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 639-646.
  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1984. "A Theory of Expropriation and Deviations from Perfect Capital Mobility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 16-40, March.
  3. Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June.
  4. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  5. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  6. David Kreps & Robert Wilson, 1999. "Reputation and Imperfect Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 238, David K. Levine.
  7. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
  8. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  9. Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-666.
  10. Herschel I. Grossman & John B. Van Huyck, 1985. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 1673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jonathan Eaton, 1985. "Lending with Costly Enforcement of Repayment and Potential Fraud," NBER Working Papers 1697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
  13. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1980. "LDC participation in international financial markets : Debt and reserves," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-21, February.
  14. Homi Kharas, 1984. "The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 415-439.
  15. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-34, September.
  16. Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1984. "Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 194-99, May.
  17. Richard Arnott & Joseph Stiglitz, 1982. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: The Welfare Economics of Moral Hazard," Working Papers 483, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Richard Arnott & Joseph Stiglitz, 1982. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets, The Welfare Economics of Moral Hazard: Basic Analytics," Working Papers 465, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  19. Jaffee, Dwight M & Modigliani, Franco, 1969. "A Theory and Test of Credit Rationing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 850-72, December.
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