IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Like Father like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults In Reduced Credit to the Private Sector

  • Esteves, Rui
  • Jalles, João Tovar

This paper investigates the impact of sovereign defaults on the ability of the corporate sector in emerging nations to finance itself abroad. The hypothesis here is that defaults have a negative spillover effect on the private sector through credit rationing. We explore a novel dataset covering the vast majority of corporates and municipals in emerging nations that received foreign capital between 1880 and 1913. The detailed nature of the data allows us to explore variation between countries and economic sectors. The results confirm that rationing existed, was very large, and persisted long beyond the solution of the original default problem. Therefore, the private sector in emerging countries paid a severe reputational cost for the debt intolerance of their governments, with possible implications for the growth prospects of these nations.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9303
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9303.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9303
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.

Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J. & Levine, David I., 2008. "Financial constraints on investment in an emerging market crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 568-591, April.
  2. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default In "Bad Times"?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Kletzer, Kenneth M. & Wright, Brian D., 1998. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4qg3c42v, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  5. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Working Papers 2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  7. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
  8. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, June.
  9. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Introduction to "Globalization in Historical Perspective"," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1998. "Models of Sovereign Debt: Partial versus General Reputations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 55-70, February.
  12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 715-741.
  13. Bulow, J. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Sovereign Debt: Is To Forgive To Forget?," Papers 411, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  14. Oren Sussman & Alexander Guembel, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Without Default Penalties," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe17, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  15. Carlos O. Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Working Paper Series 2006-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Adeel Malik & Jonathan R W Temple, 2005. "The Geography of Output Volatility," CSAE Working Paper Series 2005-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  18. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Supersanctions and sovereign debt repayment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 19-36, February.
  19. Rui Esteves, 2011. "The Belle Epoque of International Finance. French Capital Exports, 1880-1914," Economics Series Working Papers 534, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  20. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1, October.
  21. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  22. Rui Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Economics Series Working Papers Number 89, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  23. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "Globalization and the Poor Periphery before 1950," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232502, June.
  24. Jaume Ventura & Fernando Broner, 2008. "Rethinking the effects of financial liberalization," 2008 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Dragana Gnjatović, 2009. "Foreign long term government loans of Serbia 1862-1914," SEEMHN papers 11, National Bank of Serbia.
  26. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
  27. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
  28. Alexander Guembel & Oren Sussman, 2009. "Sovereign Debt without Default Penalties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1297-1320.
  29. Ferguson, Niall & Schularick, Moritz, 2006. "The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(02), pages 283-312, June.
  30. Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2005. "Interest rate interactions in the classical gold standard, 1880-1914: was there any monetary independence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 307-327, March.
  31. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  32. Rui Pedro Esteves, 2007. "Quis custodiet quem? Sovereign Debt and Bondholders` Protection Before 1914," Economics Series Working Papers 323, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  33. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2008. "The "Thin Film Of Gold": Monetary Rules and Policy Credibility In Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 13918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  35. William Easterly & Sergio Rebelo, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1999. "Lending Booms, Reserves, and the Sustainability of Short-Term Debt: Inferences from the Pricing of Syndicated Bank Loans," NBER Working Papers 7113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
  38. Michael D. Bordo & Alberto F. Cavallo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913," NBER Working Papers 13489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. José Jofre & Rolf Lüders & Gert Wagner, . "Economía Chilena 1810-1995. Cuentas Fiscales," Documentos de Trabajo 188, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  40. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  41. Luis A. V. Catão & Solomos N. Solomou, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1259-1275, September.
  42. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  43. Olivier Accominotti & Marc Flandreau & Riad Rezzik, 2011. "The spread of empire: Clio and the measurement of colonial borrowing costs," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(2), pages 385-407, 05.
  44. Solomou, Solomos & Vartis, Dimitris, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates in Britain, 1920 1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 850-859, September.
  45. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
  46. Guido Sandleris, 2010. "Sovereign Defaults, Domestic Credit Market Institutions and Credit to the Private Sector," Business School Working Papers 2010-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  47. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2010. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," NBER Working Papers 16528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Barry Eichengreen and Carolyn Werley., 1988. "How the Bondholders Fared: Realized Rates of Return on Foreign Dollar Bonds Floated in the 1920s," Economics Working Papers 8869, University of California at Berkeley.
  49. repec:imf:imfwpa:04/221 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. repec:imf:imfwpa:10/10 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-16, July.
  52. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  53. repec:imf:imfwpa:06/189 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct email address

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.