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A Gravity Model of International Lending: Trade, Default and Credit


  • Rose, Andrew K
  • Spiegel, Mark


One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2002. "A Gravity Model of International Lending: Trade, Default and Credit," CEPR Discussion Papers 3539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3539

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-178, February.
    2. Brian D. Wright & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 2000. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 621-639, June.
    3. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    4. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-620, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hong Bum Jang, 2011. "Financial Integration and Cooperation in East Asia: Assessment of Recent Developments and Their Implications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Shin, Kwanho & Yang, Doo Yong, 2006. "Complementarity between Bilateral Trade and Financial Integration," MPRA Paper 694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Martinez, Jose Vicente & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Is it punishment? Sovereign defaults and the decline in trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 909-930, October.
    4. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Shin, Kwanho, 2006. "Complementarity among International Asset Holdings: Do Banks Have a Special Role?," MPRA Paper 705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2008. "Bank health and lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2006. "Regional and Global Financial Integration in East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 0602, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    7. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jan 2018.
    8. Miguel García-Posada & Josep M.ª Vilarrubia, 2008. "Map of the international exposure of the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 0807, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.

    More about this item


    bank; bilateral; empirical; loan; panel; theory;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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