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Debt Maturity without Commitment

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Abstract

I analyze how lack of commitment affects the maturity structure of sovereign debt. Governments balance benefits of default induced redistribution and costs due to income losses in the wake of a default. Their choice of short- versus long- term debt affects default and rollover decisions by subsequent policy makers. The equilibrium maturity structure is shaped by revenue losses on inframarginal units of debt that reflect the price impact of these decisions. The model predicts an interior maturity structure with positive gross positions and a shortening of the maturity structure when debt issuance is high, output low, or a cross default more likely. These predictions are consistent with empirical evidence.

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  • Dirk Niepelt, 2008. "Debt Maturity without Commitment," Working Papers 08.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0805
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    2. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2018. "Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Beyond Lucas-Stokey," NBER Working Papers 24522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2013. "Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 217-228, June.
    4. Dirk Niepelt & Harris Dellas, 2013. "Credibility For Sale," 2013 Meeting Papers 12, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Dirk Niepelt & Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, 2008. "Economic and Politico-Economic Equivalence of Fiscal Policies," 2008 Meeting Papers 631, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2021. "Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Revisiting Lucas-Stokey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1640-1665.
    7. Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2015. "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 68-82.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Erce, Aitor & Uy, Timothy, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 13292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. John Hatfield & Fuhito Kojima & Yusuke Narita, 2012. "Many-to-Many Matching with Max-Min Preferences," Discussion Papers 12-020, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    12. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Take the Short Route: How to Repay and Restructure Sovereign Debt with Multiple Maturities," NBER Working Papers 19717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    14. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Economic and Politico-Economic Equivalence," CEPR Discussion Papers 9203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4343-4377, December.
    16. Harris Dellas & Dirk Niepelt, 2016. "Sovereign Debt with Heterogeneous Creditors," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 55-102.
    18. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2021. "The Commitment Benefit of Consols in Government Debt Management," Working Papers 1253, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Martin Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2015. "Politico-Economic Equivalence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 843-862, October.
    20. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa-Padilla & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "Debt dilution, overborrowing, and sovereign default risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Perez, Diego J., 2017. "Sovereign debt maturity structure under asymmetric information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 243-259.
    22. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    23. Fabrice Collard & Michel Habib & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability In Advanced Economies," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 381-420, June.
    24. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo, 2017. "Credit Risk without Commitment," 2017 Meeting Papers 1326, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2021. "The Commitment Benefit of Consols in Government Debt Management," Working Papers 1254, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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